Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Global Warming "Thoroughly" Debunked? Really?

DATA DRIVEN VIEWPOINT:  First see that News Busters headlines an article on a study that, if confirmed, would lower baseline climate temperatures over the past 2000 years by 0.3 degrees Celsius. The headline says the new study "Thoroughly Debunks" global warming.   But then see that in 2007 National Geographic points out the amount of global warming since 1880 alone is 1.4 degrees, meaning the new baseline data would still have average temperatures climbing 1.1 degrees since 1880.  Finally, see the Koch Brothers funded climate study done by some of global warnings most ardent skeptics in October of 2011.  They are forced to conclude that global warming is real and significant, and say average temperatures have risen 1 degree just since 1950.  So does this new study in any way debunk global warming?  It doesn't appear that way.  Will the media notice?  What the media should notice is how distorted News Buster's headlines can be. 

New Study Thoroughly Debunks Global Warming, Will Media Notice?

In the past several weeks as much of the nation suffered under a massive heatwave, global warming-obsessed media depicted the high temperatures as evidence of Nobel laureate Al Gore's favorite money-making scam.
A new study published in the journal Nature Sunday completely debunks all previous claims that temperatures in recent decades are in any way historic demonstrating instead that things were much hotter on this planet during Roman times:
Here, we present new evidence based on maximum latewood density data from northern Scandinavia, indicating that this cooling trend was stronger (−0.31 °C per 1,000 years, ±0.03 °C) than previously reported, and demonstrate that this signature is missing in published tree-ring proxy records. The long-term trend now revealed in maximum latewood density data is in line with coupled general circulation models indicating albedo-driven feedback mechanisms and substantial summer cooling over the past two millennia in northern boreal and Arctic latitudes. These findings, together with the missing orbital signature in published dendrochronological records, suggest that large-scale near-surface air-temperature reconstructionsrelying on tree-ring data may underestimate pre-instrumental temperatures including warmth during Medieval and Roman times. [snip]
The website of Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz published a more reader-friendly explanation of the study Monday:
Professor Dr. Jan Esper's group at the Institute of Geography at JGU used tree-ring density measurements from sub-fossil pine trees originating from Finnish Lapland to produce a reconstruction reaching back to 138 BC. In so doing, the researchers have been able for the first time to precisely demonstrate that the long-term trend over the past two millennia has been towards climatic cooling. "We found that previous estimates of historical temperatures during the Roman era and the Middle Ages were too low," says Esper. "Such findings are also significant with regard to climate policy, as they will influence the way today's climate changes are seen in context of historical warm periods." [...]
Read more:

Global Warming Fast Facts
National Geographic News
Updated June 14, 2007

Global warming, or climate change, is a subject that shows no sign of cooling down.

Here's the lowdown on why it's happening, what's causing it, and how it might change the planet.

Is It Happening?

Yes. Earth is already showing many signs of worldwide climate change.

• Average temperatures have climbed 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 degree Celsius) around the world since 1880, much of this in recent decades, according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

• The rate of warming is increasing. The 20th century's last two decades were the hottest in 400 years and possibly the warmest for several millennia, according to a number of climate studies. And the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that 11 of the past 12 years are among the dozen warmest since 1850.

Climate Citizen

Temperature Study funded by climate sceptics confirms rate of Global Warming

October 22,  2011

'Global Warming is real' declares new scientific work from an independent group of researchers called the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Study. The research team is at least partially funded by the Koch Brothers who fund several climate denial groups. The team was setup to identify flaws in the climate science of global average temperature trends, but has confirmed the analysis undertaken by NASA, NOAA and the Hadley Centre that about 1 degree Celsius of global warming has occurred since 1950.

The study confirmed that "We are seeing substantial global warming" and subtantially eliminated arguments that heat island effects, temperature station quality, and the risk of data selection bias had more than a very modest or marginal impact on the trend for increasing global average temperatures.

Four research papers have been released for public discussion with a view for them all to be submitted for peer review and eventually published. The research team was lead by Professor Richard Muller, a physicist at the University of California at Berkeley and included Saul Perlmutter who was recently announced as a winner of the 2011 Nobel Prize in Physics (for his work in cosmology). Muller criticised the global temperature trend during 2004 in an article in Technology Review, alledging that the "hockey stick" of global temperatures was broken.
"Our biggest surprise was that the new results agreed so closely with the warming values published previously by other teams in the U.S. and the U.K.,” Muller said. “This confirms that these studies were done carefully and that potential biases identified by climate change skeptics did not seriously affect their conclusions." [snip]

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