"AI Employees Are Coming" - A Dystopian Future!

 by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

Dystopia on the rise! 

This advertisement exemplifies the inhumanity, greed, amorality, and sociological ignorance typical of some corporate leaders and wealthy oligarchs. It reflects a shared goal of creating a perfect social order for the financially privileged that leaves a dystopian future for the rest of us. It is sociopathic to see AI replacing human workers as having any positive social value. Even from a practical economic perspective, it makes no sense.

Economies depend on consumption, fueled by the purchase of goods and services. A more even distribution of wealth (including fair wages) ensures broad participation in commerce by most people, thereby maintaining a healthy economy. Conversely, higher unemployment and falling wages decrease consumption, leading to economic decline. Any savings from an "AI employee" benefit the owners of capital at the expense of workers while degrading the national economy.

There are almost ten times as many wage earners as corporate owners and managers combined. Limiting workers' purchasing power only harms the economy. Unlike wage earners, an "AI employee" is not a consumer. Our economic models are biased because they overlook a crucial fact: workers are also consumers. Where are the customers (and employees) in this ad? Look again. How much coffee will AI employees buy from that store behind the sign? Notice there are no pedestrians on the sidewalks or cars on the street. This represents what we should expect if AI replaces people in the workforce. 

We, the majority, can only hope for a happy and productive life if we unite in rejecting the AI narrative being forced upon us.

The Garden State - A Paradise We Are Losing?

My personal perspective on our time in paradise. 

by Brian T. Lynch

My earlier ancestors came and settled in this region of the New Jersery Highlands 400 years ago. It was a pristine wilderness filled with every living plant, fish, and animal they could ever need to sustain themselves, just as it sustained the people who had lived here for 10,000 years before them. It was a garden of Eden… a fresh start for these disposable Europeans. It was creation as God intended. That was just twelve generations ago.

Two generations ago, my grandfather delivered milk by horse and cart. He also dug water wells by hand, finding the best groundwater with a divining rod taken from an apple tree branch. Charlie Taylor was known in Morris County for this gift. Roxbury Township once hired him to find a well for the town when all their efforts failed. He did his thing and found the water.

I was five when I watched him use a divining rod for his last and my first time. It was awesome to see bark peel off the stick in his massively strong hands as he tried to stop the pointer from turning down to the spot where our well would soon be. It was magical!

I know now that the divining rod worked for him not because it was magic or voodoo but because it was a prayer. It was an act of faith. Why has it taken me sixty years to understand this? And why has it taken me seven decades to see what we have done so quickly to our garden since?

HT: Leo for the graphic and Ted for encouraging me to write my grandfather's story

Root Cause of a Second Trump Term

by Brian T Lynch

All of the reasons people give for why Trump’s followers voted for him may be true. Yet, none of the reasons would get Trump elected if greedy rogue billionaires didn’t spend billions every year on social media operations intended to radicalize people's feelings according to their most antisocial proclivities. The MAGA movement is fundamentally a media-driven, culture-based mass hysteria. So, what is the root cause of our democratic problem?

I believe democracy is at risk because of the nearly unfathomable extremes of private wealth and the social power that it confers on individuals. Our economy is rigged to benefit the rich proportional to their private wealth. It is an exponentially growing disaster for democratic principles of human equality and representative government. The vast majority of Americans have not been fairly compensated for decades. As a result, the collective wealth of our middle and working class combined no longer offsets the growing power of private wealth.

We can’t keep a democratic nation if we don’t stand up for a fair and democratic economy that serves our common interests.

Hercules Testimony Never Given at Roxbury Planning Board

Prepared Testimony for the Public Roxbury Planning Board

My prepared testimony for the public Roxbury Planning Board hearing on the Hartz Mountain application to build a warehouse on the Hercules property was never delivered. The application for the 54-acre warehouse was suddenly withdrawn, so no public meeting regarding the warehouse took place. Here is the testimony I didn't give.

My frustration with the planning board meetings is that all public comments after the testimony at the hearings could only relate to what witnesses and the planning board members presented. The public was allowed to ask questions or express concerns outside of that scope.

This restriction is understandable and necessary for the board's operation, but it remains very frustrating for the public. I was looking forward to an open public planning board meeting. I wrote my comments to highlight a small example of the larger need for a more scientific environmental study of habitats on the Hercules property. 

Comments by:

Brian T. Lynch, MSW
Mine Hill, N.J.
May 1, 2024

I am what the Raritan Headwaters Association (RHA) calls a citizen scientist, volunteering to monitor streams on behalf of the organization. This means I have received specialized training from them and am certified as a stream monitor by the New Jersey DEP. Since 2018, I have been monitoring a section of the Black River located about 150 yards from where it exits the Hercules-Kenvil property.

I believe the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) prepared by Hertz Mountain Corporation as part of their General Site Permit does not meet the needs of this board. The EIS lacks sufficient site-specific details regarding the fauna and flora that will be affected. An adequate habitat inventory and assessment are missing. My statement tonight is intended to give just one example of why a detailed environmental evaluation matters at this site.

A temperature difference of 5 degrees Celsius, or 9 degrees Fahrenheit, in stream water may seem minor. However, it could spell the difference between survival and extinction for the American Brook Lamprey that inhabits the Black River between Hercules and Sunset Lake.

American Brook Lamprey are ancient freshwater fish that have survived every natural disaster over the past 360 million years. They are virtually unchanged from their earliest fossil records, dating back that far. No one knows precisely how long these “living fossils” have inhabited the Black River in Kenvil, but residents just downstream from Hercules have seen them for generations. 

This should be good news. The American Brook Lamprey are pollution intolerant. Their presence in the stream is the best proof that Ashland Chemical and Roxbury Township have that an array of toxic chemicals in the soil is staying put rather than migrating into the "Great Spring" in the southern wetlands. These fish are also intolerant of high turbidity, high salinity, man-made barriers such as dams, and water temperatures above 20 degrees Celsius, or 68 degrees Fahrenheit. For this reason, the U.S. EPA considers the Brook Lamprey an excellent biological indicator of water quality in our streams. If the waters flowing from the Great Spring on the Hercules property were tainted with toxins, turbid, salty, or too warm, the lamprey would not be present at the RHA monitoring site. Some barriers would prevent them from migrating to the monitoring site from below Sunset Lake. I monitor the stream where water exits Hercules. Each year, my volunteer colleagues and I collect samples for laboratory analysis of the macroinvertebrates living in the stream bed. This section of the stream is not well suited for the HDMI water quality index based on macroinvertebrates analysis because the stream flows over a smooth bed of glacial sand. There are no cobbles or riffles to add oxygen to the water. Because cold water holds more oxygen than warm water, the coolness of this water is critical for all aquatic life in this part of the stream. I also measure the stream's temperature, volume, and turbidity every year. On the warmest June monitoring day in 2022, after three-quarters of an inch of rain fell 18 hours prior, the water temperature was just at 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees F). This is the upper limit beyond which the American Brook Lamprey cannot survive. Also, the water was only slightly turbid after that rainfall. This observation matters because, up until a few weeks ago, I had never seen an unusual amount of turbidity after a rainstorm at the monitoring site. High turbidity after a rain often signals that soil or sediments are entering the stream in large amounts. On April 13, 2024, I observed substantial turbidity after a significant rainstorm. I photographed the stream and then checked each accessible location where water enters the property. No significant inflow of turbid water was observed there. I photographed those sites as well. This suggests that the soil causing this excess turbidity might be coming from the bioremediation area where acres of soil have been excavated and exposed. If so, this raises the possibility of toxins in the soil migrating off-site. For the lamprey, increased turbidity and potential toxins entering the water pose t

 

Why Else should the Lamprey’s survival matter?

Among the many good reasons, these ancient survivors have one of the most robust immune systems on the planet. Scientists are convinced that lampreys hold genetic secrets that might someday unlock ways to enhance our immunity from diseases. There is an urgency among scientists to study these fish because their numbers are dwindling. They are already listed as an endangered species in several nearby states. In New Jersey, they will soon be listed as a “species of interest.” This will allow the DEP to study them more carefully and determine if they need protection.

My comments here highlight just one example of where the EIS falls short in assessing the potential environmental impacts of the proposed development on the aquatic habitat at Hercules. I ask this board to consider this information as you make your decision on the General Site Plan approval.

POST SCRIPT: Since I wrote this, the NJDEP Fish and Game took an interest in the lamprey in the Upper Black River, conducted a fish survey, and discovered that the stream is also home to first-of-the-year brook trout. The stream's categorization will be upgraded to C1-TP, which is the highest level of pro

A Public Hearing Held on the Thousand-Acre Polluted Hercules-Kenvil Site in New Jersey

by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

Lake Hopatcong News magazine article does a good job of covering the first public hearing on the Hercules-Kenvil environmental status and clean-up efforts. The link below will take you to the magazine. The article starts on page 10.

CLICK THE LINK: ://www.yumpu.com/.../read/68849475/2024-fall-issue

Correction: I am not on the Mine Hill Environmental Commission. Mine Hill Township in NJ does not currently have an Environmental Commission. It was disbanded years ago.

As rain falls around us

by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

• Oceans hold 97% of all Earth's water, which is salty.

• Every drop of rain is freshwater that is distilled and pure, thanks to the rain cycle. 
 • About 3% of the Earth’s water is fresh, two-thirds of which is trapped in ice or permafrost. 
• About half of all rainwater that falls on land returns to the air due to evaporation or transpiration that results from photosynthesis (essentially, plant breath). 
 • Gravity draws most of the other half into river basins and out to sea. 
• Every roadway storm drain is a tributary to a local stream within a river basin. 
• A fraction of all rainfall filters underground to fill aquifers (underground reservoirs). 
• The average rate that rain travels down to the aquifers is 10 feet per year. 
• Under every river or freshwater waterbody is a wider, deeper flow of groundwater heading to the sea: 
   -  When stream banks are full, some water filters into stream banks, which increases groundwater reserves. 
   -  When stream flow is low, groundwater seeps back into the streams, keeping water volume more stable and preserving aquatic habitats. o When air temperature is hot, cool groundwater helps keep stream temperatures cooler. 
  -  When air temperatures are cold, groundwater keeps water temperatures warmer, making streams and rivers more habitable. 
• Riffles (rocky bottom areas) and rapids add oxygen to streams and rivers, • Cooler water holds more essential oxygen than warmer water. 
• Vegetation along streams and riverbanks provides nutrients for aquatic life, keeps the water cooler, and provides essential habitat.  
• The hyporheic, or “liver of the river,” is a subsurface layer where groundwater and surface water meet. It serves an important filtration function: 
   -  A transition zone between two larger ecosystems where species from both zones mingle and unique hyporheic organisms exist. 
   -  It can be dozens of feet thick and many miles wider than the river.     -  Water flows through the hyporheic layer in the same direction as the surface water but at much slower rates. 
   -  The upward flow of groundwater in this zone brings oxygen needed for fish eggs to develop. o In healthy streams, this zone is full of life. Crustaceans, worms, and aquatic insects move between it and the stream bottom. 
   -  Nematodes, copepods, rotifers, and tardigrades burrow throughout the zone, creating pathways that allow groundwater and surface water to mix. 
  -  Microbial life in the zone metabolizes inorganic compounds to create food for other tiny organisms. It functions like our gut bacteria, detoxifying certain harmful chemicals while producing other compounds essential for good health.

HOW PLASTICS HARM HUMANS - TIPS TO AVOID EXPOSURE

New Study Links Microplastics to Serious Health Harms in Humans

A SUMMARY: 

Microplastics have been found all over the world, from Antarctica to the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean, and even in clouds.

A recent study suggests the presence of microplastics in human carotid arteries may double the risk of stroke or heart attack in people with heart disease.

Scientists are finding microplastics in almost every part of the body, including the lungs and stomach.

Microplastics can be contaminated with toxic chemical additives, which can leach into the body and harm the hormone and reproductive systems.

Similarly, pollutants or microorganisms can also jump on microplastic particles and pose health risks to humans.

Scientists have researched the impact of microplastics on animals. Studies on mice showed exposure to microplastics can disrupt the gut biome, lower sperm quality and testosterone, and impair learning and memory.

Plastic doesn’t decompose. Instead, it breaks down into tinier and tinier pieces. When the size of a piece of plastic is about the width of a small paperclip, the particles are known as microplastic. When they become smaller than a micrometer, they become nanoplastics, which can breach the cell barriers in plants and animals.

Microplastics and nanoplastics have found their way into nearly everything, including animal products, water and even air.

A standard-size water bottle (.5 liter) contained an average of 120,000 plastic particles from seven types of plastics, of which 90% can be nanoplastics according to one new study.

Plastics contain and leach hazardous chemicals, including endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) that threaten human health…EDCs disturb the body’s hormone systems and can cause cancer, diabetes, reproductive disorders, and neurological impairments in developing fetuses and children.

Tips to Reduce Exposure

1. Dust and vacuum regularly. Removing excess dust can help cut down on the amount of microplastic fibers you breathe.
2. Avoid drinking from disposable plastic water bottles. 
3. If you must use them, keep them out of the sun, in a cool, dry environment.
4. Filter your water. Tap water can contain nanoplastics.
5. Home water filters reduce contaminants including micro/nanoplastics.
6. Avoid plastic cutting boards. 
7. Use wood, glass, or steel.
8. Microwave your food in glass containers. Plastic containers can release millions of microplastic particles into your food.
9. Dispose of all plastic safely either by recycling what can be recycled or by trash disposal to a sanitary landfill.
10. Avoid cutting, sanding, or grinding plastics, especially with power tools. If you must do this work, wear an N95 quality mask.

________________________________

Webliography - and original sources for further study

Main Article: https://www.ewg.org/news-insights/news/2024/03/new-study-links-microplastics-serious-health-harms-humans

Antartic Plastic: https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/2127/2022/

Atlantic Ocean Bottom: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/microplastic-pollution-is-found-in-deep-sea

Clouds: https://www.acs.org/pressroom/presspacs/2023/november/microplastics-found-in-clouds-could-affect-the-weather.html

Carotid Arteries Study: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2309822

Human Lungs: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969722020009

Human Stomach: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36182891/

Hormone and Reproductive Systems:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969723062939#:~:text=According%20to%20this%20review%2C%20flame,brain%20development%20and%20kidney%20functions.

Microorganisms and pollutants: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37695231/

Animal - Gut Biome: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0045653519327328

Animal - Lower Sperm quality/testosterone:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304389420314199

Animal - Impaired learning/memory
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304389422002199

Animal Products: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749123022352?via%3Dihub

Water: https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/wash-documents/microplastics-in-dw-information-sheet190822.pdf

Air: https://www.ciel.org/breathing-plastic-the-health-impacts-of-invisible-plastics-in-the-air/

Water Bottles: https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2300582121

Water Bottle Caps: https://www.ewg.org/news-insights/news/2023/10/whats-your-water-bottle-concerns-about-microplastics-caps

PET plastic Water Bottles and UV exposure:
https://www.plasticstoday.com/packaging/how-uv-light-impacts-pet-containers-and-rpet-options

Plastic Leaches hazardous Chemicals: https://www.endocrine.org/news-and-advocacy/news-room/2020/plastics-pose-threat-to-human-health

Massive 1940 Hercules Explosion - an Act of Domestic Terrorism?

by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

On September 12, 1940, twenty-five tons of freshly manufactured gunpowder exploded at the Hercules Powder Plant in Kenvil, N.J., leaving a 13-foot-deep crater in the ground. It generated a shock wave felt 90 miles away and leveled nearly one thousand acres of the plant. Fifty-two workers were killed in the blast, and several hundred more were injured. Victims were laid out on the lawn of Dover General Hospital because there were too many to fit inside.

 

The FBI, under Herbert Hoover, was in charge of the investigation. There were local rumors that the explosion was the work of German undercover agents. One contemporary news article reported that the FBI was already investigating these rumors when Hercules blew up. That account said that the FBI already collected information on everyone who worked at the plant before the blast. The article then mentioned that there was a large pro-Nazi, German-American Bund organization operating out of Camp Nordland in Andover, New Jersey. This was true, but was there a connection?



Early into the investigation after the explosion, the FBI informed the press that the explosion was most like the result of an industrial accident. Most newspapers didn’t mention that the FBI already had an open investigation into an alleged plot to blow the Hercules plant. Rumors of German American sabotage remained just that… rumors.

Exactly two months after the huge Hercules explosion, three smaller U.S. military-industrial plants were blown up within twenty minutes of each other. One was in New Jersey and two in Pennsylvania. These plants manufactured torpedoes, signal flares, and ammunition. Sixteen more workers were killed in these apparent attacks.

This did not appear to be a coincidence. The whiff of sabotage now seemed unmistakable. Today, we know that America was under attack, but who was responsible for killing 68 workers at four of our military manufacturing plants? Where are the FBI’s findings? Why was no one brought to justice for these murders?

A fog settled over these questions leaving a memory gap for everyone who lived through it. To this day, if you ask area residents what caused the Hercules explosion, they echo the same response as those who lived through it eighty years ago… It was either an industrial accident or German sabotage. Even as recently as 2015, Roxbury Township, New Jersey, posted a tribute to those who died in the Hercules blast and gave a description of the event. It concludes:

“Still unanswered is the real cause of the fatal 1940 explosion: Industrial Accident or Nazi Spies?”

But, a fresh review of the evidence points to domestic terror as the most likely cause. This makes the Hercules explosion the seventh deadliest domestic terrorist attack in U.S. history. If you search the internet for U.S. domestic terrorist attacks, however, you won’t find Hercules on that list. The fascist extremists who carried out this attack were never publicly identified or brought to justice.

Rachael Maddow reported new details and took a fresh look at the Hercules explosion in Episode 3 of her podcast, Ultra. Her review points convincingly to a terrorist attack by American fascist extremists. The chain of evidence pointing to a domestic attack at Hercules begins in Los Angeles, California, and runs through the United States Congress. Among the principal suspect organizations that planned the attack is the German American Bund in California. 

The German American Bund was originally founded in Buffalo, New York. It was led by Fritz Julius Kuhn. Another suspect organization was the Silver Legion founded by William D. Pelley in Ashland, North Carolina. Both these groups openly aspired to take over the United States government before the United States entered World War II. Both organizations had active branches in California and New Jersey. 

Los Angeles was a hotbed of antisemitic propaganda and pro-Nazi paramilitary groups in the 1930s. These right-wing groups shared a cluster of ideas, values, and actions with the Klu Klux Klan, enough so that political resistance to investigating the Klan helped shield pro-Nazi groups as well. Like the Klan, pro-Nazi groups considered themselves to be true American Patriots as they actively recruited conscripts, raised funds, purchased weapons, trained militia members, and organized military-style marches and demonstrations in Los Angeles, Chicago, New York, and many other towns and cities across the country. They held large rallies to indoctrinate the public. They coordinated with pro-Nazi organizations in other states to create a large national network determined to overthrow American democracy. 

While they denied it at the time, it was later shown that these right-wing pro-Nazi groups secretly took instructions and money from Hitler’s Germany. By the late 1930s, their violent rhetoric and extreme anti-semitic propaganda became so strident that it alarmed many ordinary citizens.

Leon Lewis was a World War 1 veteran active in the Disabled American Veterans organization. He was a resident of Los Angeles. In 1938 he became alarmed by the violent rhetoric and threats being made by the German American Bund and other pro-Nazi groups in the area. Seeing that law enforcement agencies were reluctant to investigate these groups, he set up his own private spy operation. He recruited four men from Disabled American Veterans and two of their wives to join fascist hate groups, gain the leader's trust, rise up the ranks, and report back to him every day about what these groups were doing. Lewis kept careful logs of what they saw and heard and accumulated detailed records of their plans and operations. It was through Lewis' spy operation that one of his private spies, Neil Ness, learned of plans to target Hercules Powder Company in Kenvil and several other munitions manufacturing plants for an attack.

A year earlier, Martin Dies, was a Democratic Congressman from Texas when he and Samuel Dickstein created the House Committee Investigating Un-American Activities, (HUAC). The Committee was initially called the Dies’ Committee, and Dies was its chairman. The committee was created to root out right-wing and left-wing subversives in the government and other organizations. The committee mainly targeted communist infiltrators and left-wing sympathizers, but also right-wing pro-Nazi organizations. Some members of the Committee were reluctant to investigate the "Klan". When the committee’s Chief Counsel announced that the Dies Committee would not be investigating any KKK activities he said, "The committee has decided that it lacks sufficient data on which to base a probe", to which the ranking Committee member John E. Rankin added: 

"After all, the KKK is an old American institution."

Lewis wrote to Congressman Dies about the trove of information he had collected on the activities of right-wing groups. In 1939, Martin Dies invited Leon Lewis to come to Washington D.C., to testify before his Committee. Lewis accepted the invitation and brought with him Neil Ness who had direct eyewitness information about the plot to sabotage the Hercules and other manufacturing plants.

In October of 1939, Neal Ness testified under oath before the HUAC in Congress. He detailed his involvement and high position in several German American and right-wing pro-Nazi groups in Los Angeles. He provided shocking testimony on how these groups were making plans to blow up military defense plants. He said specifically, “We talked about blowing up the Hercules Powder Plant.” These coordinated attacks were referred to as Der Tag. The phrase "Der Tag" (The Day) was a popular German toast to an imminent military engagement.

Ness’ testimony was so shocking the Committee found it hard to believe. Nevertheless, the Committee made a criminal referral to investigate the reported plot and sent the transcripts to the FBI.  Eleven months later Hercules blew up. 

After the explosion, Congressman Martin Dies, the Chairman of the HUAC, gave a statement to the press in which he said:

"Everyone laughed when a man named Ness testified before our committee a year ago about plans to blow up the Hercules Company. When the plant blew up, it happened the way he said it would.”

While the FBI managed to interrupt many death threats against Jews, Jewish organizations, and other targets of right-wing fascist extremists during this period, its eleven-month lead in the Hercules plot was not enough time to stop it. Nor did an additional two months of investigation foil the three additional attacks. Eighty-four years later there is still no vindication for the victims. We end up today with the same questions people asked from the start. Who was responsible for killing 68 workers at four of our military manufacturing plants? Where are the FBI’s findings? Why was no one brought to justice for these murders?

We have a few additional questions to ask ourselves today. Where did all the fascist extremists go after Pearl Harbor? They seem to have disappeared into the woodwork. What became of the children they were grooming in German American Bund camps to be their movement's future leaders? Is there a link between these fascist youth camps from the past and the dangerous parallels that exist today with this dark history?  Most critically, what lessons from the past can we apply to help understand and navigate the resurgence of fascist extremism today? 

Can Electric Cars Save the Planet?

 

by Brian T. Lynch, MSW*

A discussion with an engineer friend of mine regarding electric vehicles and electric energy production in the United States prompted me to do a brief survey of thermal efficiency rates for various carbon-producing and carbon-free electric power generation options. The results are below.

For me, the whole discussion is animated by the nearly unanimous conclusion of hundreds of climate scientists that we have only six years left to make carbon dioxide reductions sufficient enough to avoid the worst impacts of global warming. We lost a half-century of time to a well-funded disinformation campaign by the fossil fuel industries, whose corporate leaders were the first to discover that their products would eventually lead to a global warming crisis.
Can a rapid transition to electric vehicles save us from global warming?

No! This was never the case. At any rate, it is already too late for half-measures. There are many other major sources of carbon dioxide emissions that need to be brought under control. There are other factors that expedite the problem as well, such as the loss of jungles and forests that capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.  Added to other much-needed actions, however, transitioning to electric vehicles is STILL a necessary step.

RENEWABLE ELECTRIC ENERGY
I confirmed that currently, about 60% of our electricity generation is from fossil fuels—coal, natural gas, petroleum, and other gases. About 18% was from nuclear energy, and about 21% was from renewable energy sources. Our renewable energy sources increase by about 1.5 percentage points per year at this time. So, the current energy mix on our electric grid is about 60% carbon-based and 40% alternative sources. In six years, at the present growth rate of renewable energy sources, it will be about 49% carbon-based and 51% alternative sources. This is still bad news for Earth's climate. It's way too slow to be a determinative factor at this point. 


EV vs. ICE
"Electric vehicles (EVs) are generally 60–73% efficient, depending on the drive cycle. However, when you include the energy recaptured from regenerative braking, EVs can be over 77% efficient. This is because regenerative braking captures energy that would otherwise be lost as heat."

"Modern gasoline engines (ICE) have a maximum thermal efficiency of more than 50%, but most road-legal cars are only about 20% to 40% [efficient] when used to power a car."

CARBON FOOTPRINT OF EV AND ICE VEHICLES:

"The researchers found that, on average, gasoline cars emit more than 350 grams of CO2 per mile driven over their lifetimes. The hybrid and plug-in hybrid versions scored around 260 grams of carbon dioxide per mile, while the fully battery-electric vehicle created just 200 grams. Stats from the U.S. Department of Energy tell a similar story: Using the nationwide average of different energy sources, DOE found that EVs create 3,932 lbs. of CO2 equivalent per year, compared to 5,772 lbs. for plug-in hybrids, 6,258 lbs. for typical hybrids, and 11,435 lbs. for gasoline vehicles."

Thermal Efficiency in Electric Power Generation


ZERO CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS OPTIONS


Wind

What is the ultimate efficiency of wind power generation?

That number is 16/27, or 59.3%. On a practical level with utility-scale wind turbines, the best turbines achieve roughly 75–85% of this 59.3% value, meaning roughly 44–50% efficiency. This is under the most optimal operating conditions.

Solar Thermal

Solar thermal energy is around 70–80% effective at converting solar energy into heat. Solar water heaters are the most common method for converting solar energy into thermal energy. Solar thermal collectors convert solar radiation into heat, which can be used in industrial, residential, and governmental sectors.

Solar Photoelectric

Though most commercial panels have efficiencies from 17% to 20%, researchers have developed PV cells with efficiencies approaching 50%.

Nuclear

New nuclear plants have a thermal efficiency of around 34–36%, while new reactor designs can reach 39%.

Hydro

The efficiency of today's hydroelectric plant is about 90 percent. Hydroelectric plants do not create air pollution, the fuel--falling water--is not consumed, projects have long lives relative to other forms of energy generation, and hydroelectric generators respond quickly to changing system conditions.



CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION OPTIONS

Coal

New coal-fired plants are about 40% efficient, while CCGT plants can reach 60%.

Natural gas

Natural gas plants can be 39–60% efficient, depending on the type of plant. A simple cycle natural gas power plant is usually 33–43% efficient.

Gas turbine

A simple cycle gas turbine can achieve 20–35% energy conversion efficiency.

Fossil fuel

State-of-the-art fossil fuel plants can reach 46% efficiency.

Combined-cycle systems

Combined-cycle systems can reach higher values, such as over 60% efficiency.

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* The main reason I put my degree (MSW) after my name on this blog is because there are so many people named Brian T. Lynch on the internet. 

Duck Pond and a Better Way to Think About Land

by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

Let me introduce you to a 12,000-year-old feature of Roxbury, New Jersey, that has been off limits to the general public for more than 125 years.

This photo, courtesy of Ashland Chemical Corporation, is likely your first peek at the beautiful Duck Pond. It was mine as well. It is a 15-acre, spring-fed pond in the northeastern corner of the 1,000-acre Hercules property in Kenvil. 

Duck Pond appears on the earliest maps of the area. It has no natural inlet or outlet and apparently never did. Spring water vents up into the pond and then infiltrates back into the shallow, unconfined aquifer upon which it sits. This has likely been true since it was created when the Wisconsin Glacier receded thousands of years ago. 

Old historical documents I've read indicate that this entire tract of land was once the summer home of the Leni Lenape natives, who undoubtedly fished and swam in this pond. It was these original people who referred to the southern wetland on the property as the Great Spring. They named the Black River, which flows from this wetland, “Alamatong,” meaning “gentle flowing.” This refers to the rapid yet smooth flow of its water over a bed of glacial sand. From this Algonquian word, we derive the name Lamington, which is the official name of the stream. 

The reason most of us have never seen Duck Pond is that it is located within a polluted industrial area that has been off-limits to residents and the public for well over one hundred twenty-five years. The production of explosives ceased three decades ago, but there are still hot spots of pollution on the land. It remains an unsafe place to freely roam around. 

What motivates me to write this now is a PowerPoint slide presented by Hartz Mountain Corporation during a Roxbury Township Planning Board hearing. For those who may not know, Hartz Mountain was seeking to build 54 acres of warehouses on a 200-acre parcel on the property. One of the PowerPoint slides labeled Duck Pond as a drainage area. 

I was struck by this sterile language. I've seen similar language in other Hercules-related documents. Indeed, Duck Pond is a drainage area, as is every freshwater lake in the world. However, the use of the term in the context of clean-up operations conveys how the pond was utilized while explosives were manufactured on the property. It is perhaps how the pond is still viewed by some. Duck Pond is yet another place to be addressed on the property- a site that has been horribly abused for a century and a half. 

Just as groups of people can be marginalized and robbed of their personhood through word choices, so too can it happen to portions of our biosphere that we call “property.” Property is a lifeless term that allows our consciences to treat a piece of land as something other than a living habitat. 

My point is that viewing Hercules as a compromised yet beautifully complex habitat should be the foundation for all subsequent considerations. Whether we take active measures to clean up our mess or allow nature time to renew the land on its own, the language we choose to describe it will influence our decisions and the outcomes that follow. We should always be respectful, even reverent, of biological spaces and our use of land. We must not treat the Hercules property with any less consideration due to its troubled past.

————

An 1887 map of “Suckasunny” showing Duck Pond in the McCainsville District of Roxbury. 

A Word About Self-help Against Disinformation Campaigns

 by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

We have all become targets of professional-grade media influence campaigns of one sort or another, and highly effective disinformation attacks are among these. When we are unaware of, or think we are immune to these cyber campaigns, we are, in fact, most vulnerable to them.

Real, personal inoculation against malicious cyber-influencers begins once we accept that we are all capable of falling under the influence of professional disinformation campaigns. Self-inoculation from cyber disinformation begins when we acknowledge that we are all at risk of manipulation by powerful techniques arrayed against us on social media. The most effective attacks are invisible to us. Our change of opinion feels rational to us. It also helps me to know that a lot of money and planning is behind these malicious "cyber attacks" on our thinking [more accurately, on our endurable mental frameworks that influence how we think about things]. It isn't just me, and it isn't happening by chance or as a natural impact of social media.

To protect myself, I have developed a healthy skepticism of any claims that sound extraordinary, emotionally wrought, or discordant with the things I can observe for myself. When this happens, I take the time to investigate (or research) and validate the information, its source, and its proponents. It is time-consuming, but I find it worth my time (usually). It is how I protect myself. In the process, I have come to view people who express grossly invalidated opinions as casualties of cyberwarfare rather than my opponents, political enemies, conspiracy nuts, uninformed, etc., [pick your choice of judgemental terms.]

Here is an early history lesson: 

Russian use began with a "special disinformation office" in 1923. Disinformation was defined in Great Soviet Encyclopedia (1952) as "false information with the intention to deceive public opinion". From this point on, disinformation became a tactic used in Soviet political warfare called active measures. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_disinformation#:~:text=Russian%20use%20began%20with%20a,political%20warfare%20called%20active%20measures. 

2023, The Warmest in 100,000 Years

by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

IT IS OFFICIAL!

New York City in June 6, 2023

Last year, 2023, the year when the Canadian wilderness caught fire, was the hottest year on record... by far. In fact, scientists believe it was the hottest year in the last 100,000 years. Global warming is no longer just our future; It is our past and present reality. Quotes from the New York Times:

"On average, in 2023 the planet was 1.48 degrees Celsius warmer than in the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period, when humans began burning fossil fuels on an industrial scale, pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

"This has been a very exceptional year, climate-wise... in a league of its own, even when compared to other very warm years," C3S Director Carlo Buontempo said.

C3S confirmed 2023 as the hottest year in global temperature records going back to 1850. When checked against paleoclimatic data records from sources such as tree rings and air bubbles in glaciers, Buontempo said it was "very likely" the warmest year in the last 100,000 years."

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/2023-was-worlds-hottest-year-record-eu-scientists-confirm-2024-01-09/

The fossil fuel industry did an impressive job forecasting this outcome back in the early 1960s. They did an even more remarkable job of concealing it from the public for years and then creating a false counter-narrative to convince us that global warming is a hoax.

We have to stop listening to them and to all the victims and benefactors of their lies. The electric vehicles we buy this year are purchases delayed over 40 years when it would have made a big difference. Everything we do from here out to lower our carbon footprint impacts only the margins. Let's hope we can still prevent the worst possible outcomes.

ADDENDUM: JANUARY 2024 WAS THE WARMEST JANUARY ON RECORD.

Black River Origin in Mount Arlington Also? Who Knew?

 by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

Am I the only one just learning that Mount Arlington hosts the Northernmost tip of the Black River? 

If this isn't already common knowledge, then let's welcome Mount Arlington to the list of many municipalities that share a portion of the Raritan River Basin, the largest river basin entirely within New Jersey's border. The upper Black River tributary in Mount Arlington stretches for about 1.6 miles north, up past Dunlop Pond. There may be another branch heading west along Seasons Drive. 

I don't yet know to what extent the tributary may be spring-fed, but where it crosses under Rt. 80, it is a moderate-sized creek (meaning you can jump over it) under normal weather conditions. It is only one of two natural water sources that enter Hercules. The other tributary is the man-made pipeline that directs water from Drakes Pond under Rt. 46 and into the Great Spring wetland area. All other inputs are from storm drains along Howard Blvd. and Rt. 46. 

If you live in the area and didn't know this, it could be due to a discontinuity observed in the aerial photograms that NJDEP uses to map the states' streams. An old underground pipeline on the 1,000-acre Hercules property in Kenvil creates the apparent discontinuity. 

The normal amount of water volume in this tributary is about a third less than the Drakes Pond inflow. This information is important to me in my quest to estimate how much spring water vents up from the Great Spring within the southern wetland. 

NEWS FLASH: U.S. Lost 88,000 Acres of Natural Forests Last Week

by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

NEWS FLASH: 

The United States lost over 88,000 acres of natural forests last week. The world's tropical rainforests lost 200,000 acres just yesterday.

[NEWS UPDATE: Rate of deforestation in 2023 halved in Amazon rainforest: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67962297 ]

An aerial photo released by Greenpeace shows smoke billowing from forest fires in the Amazon basin in northwestern Brazil.

 

(Victor Moriyama / AFP-Getty Images)

If you missed seeing the headlines, it's because this wasn't reported. This isn't news. The U.S. loses 88,000 acres of forest every week, and tropical forests are disappearing at a rate of 200,000 acres daily.
At current rates, no forests will be left in America in 135 years. Half of the world's tropical forests are already gone and will be gone entirely within 100 years at the current rate. Amazon rainforest alone produces 20% of our global oxygen and removes huge amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Agriculture is said to be the leading cause of deforestation, but the real underlying cause is our exponential population growth. 

We reached 8 billion people living here at once. The planet cannot sustain the current rate at which we consume natural resources. What is the biggest driver of overpopulation? Impoverishment and scarcity of food and healthcare. There is a correlation between family size and survival uncertainties. The more people fear for their children's survival, the more children they have to ensure survival. Global wealth disparity is a major contributing factor.

Hunger and poverty in the world are not just caused by a lack of food or production but by the unequal and unfair distribution of human essentials. In the U.S. alone, 38% of all food goes unsold or uneaten. That means 149 billion meals end up in landfills each year. The scale of the problem is similar in Europe and many parts of the world.

 
So, the best place to start addressing all of these issues is by reducing wealth inequality on a global scale. Distributive injustice is the root cause of global impoverishment. There is enough food and other goods produced for everyone to have a basic sufficiency. Global impoverishment causes survival uncertainties that result in overpopulation in third-world countries. Overpopulation puts stress on natural resources and the need for more farmland. Families living in the Amazon rainforest slash and burn acres of land each year to feed and care for their families. The loss of natural forests accelerates global warming and the loss of species due to the destruction of their habitat. This is a death spiral that we can and must fix. 

 

How is Electing a Person Disloyal to the Constitution Somehow Unconstitutional?

by Brian T Lynch, MSW

I can’t believe how many otherwise intelligent, non-MAGA people in the media are flummoxed by the Fourteenth Amendment’s provision preventing seditionists from holding public office. The hang-up seems to be that finding Trump ineligible to be President again somehow violates people’s rights to vote for whoever they want. But, such a right never existed in our Constitution. 

There have always been qualifications for public office. Age, citizenship, and term limits have never caused political consternation before. Why, then, is electing a person with no loyalty to the Constitution somehow unconstitutional? If you are elected within the framework of the Constitution, you cannot be permitted to dismantle it from within. That is akin to changing the Constitution by a simple majority vote. The Constitution requires that any changes to it require passage by a super majority in Congress and the consent of a super majority of States. 

Think about it! If Donald Trump is elected, he would first have to swear an oath to uphold the very Constitution that he has already violently violated and is promising to destroy on day one. His oath would be his biggest lie ever.  How can we logically permit it? 

Our Constitution is the highest expression of the people’s will. It is the bones of our democracy and the sinew that holds our union of states together. We have already fought one war of rebellion by a minority of disloyalists. It was a severe test in which 600,000 Americans died to preserve our constitutional union.

 
After the war, the Constitution was amended to clarify that it applied to all men. An oath of allegiance to the Constitution was added for every public office holder. No one who has already broken that oath can hold public office. 

Our democratic republic and Constitution are one. Any impulse to ignore or dismiss sections of it violates the "Will of the People." It weakens our union and threatens majority rule.

 
The Civil War firmly established that we don’t have a right to oppose our democracy. To this day, it is sustained by the vast majority of the people it serves. Disloyalists or seditionists are not allowed to vote it out of existence.

 
So, let’s ignore all this talk about disenfranchising Trump’s supporters. It isn’t true. The overarching will of the people has already spoken. Seditionists who lie about preserving our Constitution are not allowed to serve in public office.