Saturday, May 30, 2020

Back to Black - Racism and Police Homicides in America

by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

Once again, an egregious police homicide of a Black man caught on videotape shatters the calm and erupts into national protests and outrage. This time it is George Floyd of Minnesota. His life was slowly squeezed out of him as he lay bound and helpless while a seemingly depraved and indifferent cop pinned Mr. Floyd’s neck to the pavement with his knee.

PHOTO: Minnesota State Patrol and National Guards stand in Minneapolis, Minnesota, Photo Date: 5/29/2020 - https://www.newscenter1.tv/minneapolis-overwhelmed-again-by-protests-over-floyd-death/

Once again, the eyes of the nation turn towards the seemingly intractable problem of racism that, among its many forms, would cause African Americans to be nearly twice as likely to die at the hands of law enforcement than White Americans. Racism is our greatest barrier to becoming a more perfect union and at present, the racists seem to have ascended to power.

And once again, this despicable racial killing by a cop in broad daylight has ignited a blaze that masks an underlying outrage behind the numbers. About one-thousand American civilians are being killed every year by our civilian police force. From January 1, 2015, through December 31, 2019, there have been 1,179 police homicides of Black citizens, 2,242 homicides of White citizens, 843 police homicides of Hispanic civilians, and a total of at least 4,947 civilians killed by police.

Data is from the Washington Post database. Analysis by the author. 

Civilian homicides by police always rise to public attention because they so disproportionally target African-Americans. Once the problem is framed as a systemic racial issue the proposed remedies never reach beyond the disproportionality question. The fact that our highly aggressive and militant police training is resulting in thousands of needless deaths never comes to light. Until that is addressed, the proposed solutions will never be to anyone’s satisfaction.

Data from the Washington Post database. Analysis by the Author
Civilian homicide rates by law enforcement in America are orders of magnitude higher than in Great Britain, France, or Germany. Yet, the actual number of civilian deaths could be considerably larger still. There is no mandatory federal tracking of homicides caused by police in the line of duty. Federal reporting is all voluntary and spotty at best. The countries best numbers come by combing through local newspaper accounts and gleaning what can be learned from the public account of police-involved civilian deaths. This civilian effort to track police homicides only started about five years ago. It is an imperfect system. Clearly, not all police shootings make it into the local newspapers. The information reported is rarely investigated by local reporters. They are the accounts given to the press by the local police officials. And there are undoubtedly police-related fatalities of civilians that are never reported in the local press.

No racial activist would be or should be satisfied if successful remedies to the racial problem merely end racial disparities. In practical terms that would mean about 103 fewer Black minority deaths each year while still tolerating 133 annual minority homicides. It would be equally crazy to accept 448 White civilian death by the police as long as this carnage is in proportional to the number of Blacks and Hispanics that are also killed each year.


Data is from the Washington Post database. The analysis is by the author.

The militarization of the American police force is a big part of the problem that must be addressed. If German laws and police practices were adopted here, adjusted for our larger population, the United States might expect only about 40 police homicides per year, mostly justified uses of force, as opposed to nearly 1,000.

The arguments for this position on police homicides are in numbers found in the tables I created from the data contained in five year’s worth of information collected by the Washington Post. Seeing all the names as you scroll down that database of the dead is sobering, like visiting the Vietnam Nam War Memorial. 

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Monday, May 25, 2020

Honoring a WW II Veteran on Memorial Day - My Dad

IN MEMORIUM, MAY 25, 2020

Peter Joseph Lynch Feb. 2, 1922 - Aug. 11, 1982


Peter J. Lynch immigrated to America from Athboy, Ireland, with his mother, Ellen, in 1938 when he was 16 years old. They came to Morris Plains, New Jersey, to locate and reconnect with Peter’s father, Thomas Lynch, who had come here 10 years earlier to find work and support his family back in County Meath.

Peter discovered he had natural mechanical abilities from an early age when he was given a broken- motorbike with a blown engine. He managed to get it running again from spare parts that he walked miles to secure. His success was met with the chagrin of the local constabulary in Kildalkey who sometimes chase the lad about to keep him off the roads. When he and his mom arrived in America Peter landed a job at an auto repair shop in Morris Plains.

Three years later America was at war. Faced with a US Army draft notice, Peter enlisted into the Army Air Corps. He tried to sign up to be in the tank corps, but the recruiter was out to lunch. The Air Corps recruiter grabbed him and convinced him to become a pilot instead. Peter ended up at a flight school in Arizona where he completed his pilot training but then failed to pass his final physical before certification. He was told he was half an inch too short, so the Air Corps assigned him to be a tail gunner in a bomber crew flying the B-24 Liberator. He was disappointed, but this was probably a fateful piece of luck.

Before his deployment to England, and bombing missions over North Africa, the Air Corps granted Peter his United States citizenship, an honor he lived up to the rest of his life. During WW II it was understood that there was no greater test of loyalty than a soldier who is willing to fight and die for this country. Sadly, this is not the case today. We have many non-citizen combat veterans who are unable to take advantage of the benefits other veterans and citizens enjoy.

When the United States officially entered the war in Europe in December of 1941, direct military assistance in the North African followed quickly, beginning on May 11, 1942. From his assigned airbase in England, Peter would crawl into the bubble at the tail end of a B-24 in the pre-dawn hours during bombing missions over North Africa. The flights were cold, dark, noisy, and bumpy. The targets were the supply lines and front lines of General Rommel’s panzer divisions. The immediate goal of a tail gunner was to keep up a steady stream of fire when German fighter planes were near so the German pilots would see the arch of tracer bullets and stay clear. As long as his gun didn’t jam this was usually enough to keep the enemy at bay. But the German flack that exploded around them was another matter.

When Peter’s bomber returned to base in England after their North African run he would crawl out from his gun turret and stare in disbelief at the shafts of light where German flack pierced the skin of the aircraft. How long before a disaster? He decided that the odds were against him, so he applied to the Rolls-Royce airplane mechanics school and was accepted. After his training he spent the rest of the war more safely on the ground repairing planes by day and visiting the pubs at night when off duty. But his contribution to the war effort didn’t end there.

Sometimes, on his off days, Peter would watch the other men in his company at work, changing the tires on the B-24s. It was an arduous process involving a team of four to six men with pry bars and sledgehammers to break tire’s seal against the rim and force the tire up over the lip of the rim. It took the men over an hour per tire sometimes. Peter and a buddy of his (sorry, but I don’t remember his name) decided to come up with a better way. They tinkered around in the shop in their free-time until they came up with the world’s first electrically operated tire changer. It was an immediate success and greatly reduced the turn-around time for the U.S. bombers. He was written up in the local Morristown NJ newspaper for this contribution to the war effort, but credit for this invention was otherwise the property of the US government, and he was OK with that. 

Perhaps the most difficult days of Peter’s service career began on the morning of August 23, 1944. He was stationed at the Base Air Depot 2 - Warton, in Freckleton, England. The base was home to 10,000 American servicemen who worked on fixing and retrofitting US airplanes. As he walked across a field that morning an American B-24 Liberator Bomber flew very low overhead, obviously in serious trouble (It had been struck by lightning in a storm). It crashed just up ahead of him into the Sad Sack Café on Lytham Road. Across the road was the Holy Trinity Primary School where 176 children were in attendance. Part of the bomber crashed into the infant classroom and burst into flames. The crash killed the crew of three and 58 civilians including 38 children. Peter was among the first airman to arrive at this horrifying scene. He spent the next 48 hours straight digging through the rubble of the school to recover the bodies of the children.


After Germany surrendered, Peter remained stationed there as part of the occupation forces while awaiting the expected redeployment to Japan. That never came as Japan surrendered soon after.

Peter Lynch survived the war and returned home to Morristown, New Jersey. He took a job at Sears and Robuck as an appliance repairman, married my mother, Nona Taylor, and raised two children on a shoestring budget in Jefferson Township, NJ. He joined the American Legion Post 245 in Jefferson where he proudly served as Commander for several years. He died at the age of 60 in 1982 and had a soldier's funeral.

Today, on this 75 Memorial Day since his discharge from the Army Air Corps and 38th Memorial Days since is passing, I wish to honor him with this brief account the years of his youth that he gave in service to our country. Thank you for your service, Dad.

Brian T. Lynch, MSW


Saturday, May 23, 2020

Memorial Day Lessons in this 2020 Pandemic


by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

Before we flood back out into the world over Memorial Day of 2020 to remember our fallen soldiers, let’s remember the fallen in this viral war we are fighting today. If you plan to head out to the beaches, locker rooms, barbeques, churches, or synagogues, first remember to honor the lessons taught to us by 100,000 Americans who have already died. They are telling us that we cannot wash away this modern plague. We can not pray it away or wish it away. Until we control the virus through testing, isolating, and contact tracing, or through vaccinations, we are on our own. We must protect ourselves and everyone around us from the air we all breathe.

First, we need to understand that a virus is not a bacteria. Bacteria are small cellular critters that live on surfaces and feed off of the residues of film and grime that cover every surface. Bacteria are alive in most meanings of that word, and if you pick up enough of them on your hands, and touch your eyes, nose, or mouth, you can infect yourself with them.

Viruses like COVID-19 are 100 times smaller. They are mere strands of genetic material with no living activity when not in contact with host cells. They flit about in the air for a time, some of them floating around in moisture droplets released into the air that soon falls to the ground. Other virus strands end up in much smaller aerosol particles that stay suspended in the air for hours until they are sucked into your body when you take in a breath (think MASKS). If you touch a surface recently sprinkled with moisture droplets containing the virus, and then touch your eyes, nose, or mouth without first washing or sanitizing your hands, you may also infect yourself. This is a less common way to catch the virus because these viruses don't stay intact long when the moisture dries up.

When COVID-19 viruses get sucked into your lungs from the air, they land on the surface of your lung cells (or other cells). They trick the cell walls into letting them come inside. This is when they become active. They take control of the cell and force the cells into replicating them wildly until the cell ruptures, releasing an army of clones into the surrounding tissue. Some of these clones attach to surrounding cells and slip inside to begin replicating again. Others are caught up in the air currents and get rushed outside the body in a breath, or a cough, or a sneeze (think MASKS).

The amount of virus in the air (called virus load) depends on several factors, including how sick a person is who is breathing out the virus, how close to a sick person's breath-cloud you are (think SOCIAL DISTANCING), the volume of air per person in a given enclosed space, the air exchange rate in a building or enclosure and the length of time that a sick person is breathing virus into the air in a room, for example (think MASKS).

The manner of a sick person's breath matters also. A cough releases a lot more virus than a breath and a sneeze releases a huge amount of airborne virus that travels at up to 200 miles per hour across a room (think MASKS). But as we learned the hard way, even one pre-symptom person singing in a choir can release copious amounts of virus in the air and infect nearly everyone else at a rehearsal.

Finally, our exposure to COVID-19 virus in the air is dependent on two factors, the virus load in the air we are breathing (again, think MASKS) and the length of time that we are breathing contaminated air. It's a little like radiation exposure in this sense. No amount of exposure is entirely safe, but the amount of radiation and the length of time we are exposed increases our odds of getting sick.

So, as you venture out in the coming days, don’t poke your nose into anyone’s breath-cloud. Keep your social distance. Wear a mask when you are in close contact with others. Always wear a mask in stores, gyms, churches, homes, or any other enclosure where you are not alone, and wash your hands. You don’t need a mask in the open air when nobody is near you, but keep it handy. Your life could depend on it.


Monday, May 18, 2020

TESTING-ISOLATING-CONTACT TRACING: How it Works and Why it Matters

by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

The daily testing numbers for COVID-19 actually shrank from the Saturday numbers in some sort of correction on the WorldoMeter.info site. The US consistently ranks about 39th out of the 212 nations and territories reported in the statistics. The total number of tests performed to date isn't enough to cover more than 3.6% of our population. Here is why this matters, and why experts say we need a minimum of 10 times more testing PER DAY than we have now.

TESTING - ISOLATING - CONTACT TRACING
      
       NOTE: 
Isolation is the term used when people with symptoms are kept away from the publicQuarantine is the term used when people have been exposed but are asymptomatic

In the absence of a vaccine or effective treatment/prevention for COVID-19, the best way to get our infection rates (and death rates) under control is by testing people for the virus, isolating those who have symptoms or quarantining those who test positive, and by tracing their contacts to test them for the virus. This is the way this works to the best of my layman understanding.

1. TESTING - We need to test as many people as possible, at least millions of people per day. We need those test results to be returned immediately or ask people to self-isolate until the results are returned. If they test negative they are able to engage in the reasonable social distancing and prevention measures being advocated by the CDC. (ie: wearing masks, maintaining social distances, frequent hand washing, limiting the size of social gatherings, etc. Retesting at an appropriate interval will be required. For example, healthcare workers and first responders would need frequent testing while retirees living at home and mostly staying away from public venues would require less frequent testing.

2. ISOLATING - When a person tests positive for COVID-19 and has symptoms, they should be isolated from everyone, including their family. If they test positive but don't have symptoms they should go into quarantine for a minimum of 14 days (some researchers are suggesting a longer quarantine period). The must also be interviewed to see who they may have been in close proximity to in the prior days. (I don't know how long the lookback is.)

3. CONTACT TRACING - A team of contract tracers then determines who is at risk of contracting the virus based on the interview with an infected person and visits those potentially exposed people. These people should self-quarantine until they can be tested for COVID-19. And so the whole cycle of testing, isolating, and contract tracing continues forward.

This is how we can safely begin to reopen the economy and society while reducing the rate of infections and deaths. The key first step is adequate testing with rapid results. If we set a national goal of testing every person in the US for COVID-19 over the next 3 months, that would require administering 3.7 million tests per day. This is about 10 times the current daily average.

The next step is to hire and train a huge number of the currently unemployed people in this county to become COVID-19 test administers and contact tracers. With unemployment at record highs and so many people out of work, and with the country facing a possible "Great Depression" it should be the federal government hiring an army of contact tracers to help control the pandemic while stimulating the economy, as the WPA did 85 years ago.

Here below is a list of suggested readings with a brief synopsis:

Coronavirus: why testing and contact tracing isn’t a simple solution
://theconversation.com/coronavirus-why-testing-and-contact-tracing-isnt-a-simple-solution-137214
Talks about the limitations of testing and contract tracing and the conditions when a lockdown is needed. Gives examples of how many COVID-19 tests were needed per case in countries that were able to use this technique to control the outbreak (between 52 and 64 tests per case).


Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.20077024v1
Abstract: "... Consistent with previous modeling studies and country-specific COVID-19 responses to date, our analysis estimates that a high proportion of cases would need to self-isolate and a high proportion of their contacts to be successfully traced to ensure an effective reproduction number that is below one in the absence of other measures. If combined with moderate physical distancing measures, self-isolation and contact tracing would be more likely to achieve control."

Contact Tracing: Part of a Multipronged Approach to Fight the COVID-19 Pandemic
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/principles-contact-tracing.htmlxcerpt: Contact tracing is part of the process of supporting patients and warning contacts of exposure in order to stop chains of transmission. Given the magnitude of COVID-19 cases and plans to eventually relax mitigation efforts such as stay at home orders and social distancing, communities need a large number of trained contact tracers. These contact tracers need to quickly locate and talk with the patients, assist in arranging for patients to isolate themselves and work with patients to identify people with whom the patients have been in close contact so the contact tracer can locate them. The actual number of staff needed is large and varies depending on a number of factors including but not limited to:
  • The daily number of cases
  • The number of contacts identified
  • How quickly patients are isolated, and contacts are notified and advised to stay home, self-monitor, and maintain social distance from others
HEALTH DEPARTMENTS: Interim Guidance on Developing a COVID-19 Case Investigation & Contact Tracing Plan
Provides a comprehensive plan for local authorities to establish a TICTs (Testing, Isolating, Contact tracing) plan. Excerpt: 

Contract Tracers: Communicates with contacts to notify them of exposure, provides disease and transmission information, gathers data on demographics, living arrangements, and daily activities. Asks about signs/symptoms and underlying medical conditions. Provides referrals for testing (if appropriate). May conduct home-based specimen collection. Provides recommendations for self-quarantine and reviews daily monitoring procedures. Assesses supports necessary to maintain compliance during self-quarantine. Conversations with contacts should be guided by standard protocols. Conducts daily monitoring during self-quarantine— temperature, signs/symptoms, use of fever-reducing medications—via an electronic tool (e.g., smartphone, case management software) or other designated mechanism, until 14 days after last potential exposure, and referral to healthcare if contact becomes symptomatic.**

What Is Contact Tracing? Here's How It Could Be Used to Help Fight Coronavirus
https://time.com/5825140/what-is-contact-tracing-coronavirus/
EXCERPT:

Once someone has been confirmed to be infected with a virus, such as through a positive COVID-19 test, contact tracers try to track down others who have had recent prolonged exposure to that person when they may have been infectious. Typically, that exposure means being within 6 feet of the person for more than 10 minutes, says Dr. Breeher, though in a health care setting, such as a hospital, the bar is lowered to five minutes.

Healthcare workers then make an effort to reach out to every one of those contacts, tell them that they may have been exposed, and giving them instructions on what to do next. That may include telling them about possible symptoms or directing them to self-isolate [ie: Quarantine].

What is contact tracing?https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/10/21216550/contact-tracing-coronavirus-what-is-tracking-spread-how-it-worksExcerpt: Contact tracing is based on an obvious idea: people in close contact with someone who has COVID-19 are at risk of getting sick. The process isn’t easy. When a person gets sick, they are then interviewed by public health officials and asked who has been exposed to them. Then they take that list and fan out to ask those people either to pay close attention to how they’re feeling or to quarantine. If a person who was exposed is infected, their recent contacts will be tracked down, too. The process continues until everyone who’s been exposed is out of circulation. That stops virus transmission.

Monday, May 11, 2020

An Alternative to Total Lockdown is Urgently Needed

by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

Forget the Swedish or the German model for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. The United States should develop its own alternative model to control the outbreak, one based on science and the particular demographic data that have emerged about this disease.

An alternative approach is urgently needed because, a) a general lockdown of the entire country and its economy cannot be sustained for long, and b) the more obstreperous elements of our population, and the billionaire elites who may be pulling their strings, are already forcing states into lifting restrictions on everyone. We are heading into what will likely be a disastrously premature reopening of the economy

America is trapped in a binary choice between letting COVID-19 run its natural course or locking down society to minimize the infections and deaths until a vaccine is available. The ultimate civilized goal in a pandemic is to achieve herd immunity through vaccinations, or by any other scientific means that results in the least possible loss of life. In the absence of any civil interventions, a novel virus simply runs rampant through the population at exponential speed, making almost everyone sick and killing millions if it is a lethal strain. In the absence of vaccinations, people who recover from the novel virus are likely to develop antibodies that will prevent reinfection for some period of time, although there are exceptions. When enough people in a population have immunity following their illness or through inoculations, the whole population develops herd immunity. This means that even those people who are susceptible to illness when exposed to the virus are rarely ever exposed to it. They are safely buffered by the many people around them who are immune.

There are two demographic characteristics of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates that appear significant and potentially useful in creating an alternative approach to controlling the pandemic. The first is the very differential mortality rates according to age, and the second is emerging evidence that up to 50% of individuals who contract the virus never display any symptoms of the illness. Look at the mortality differentials first.

HIGH-RISK GROUP

CDC data (see table below) shows that 97% of COVID-19 deaths are of people 45-years-old or older. This agrees with data collected in Sweden, China, and other countries.  Also, death rates are much higher in people with underlying health conditions. From these data we know that there is a high-risk group that requires optimal protection from exposure to COVID-19.  It follows that any adults caring for people in this high-risk group also need to be optimally protected from exposure to the virus. High-risk individuals by age or underlying medical conditions and their caregivers should be allowed to remain in social lockdown in those states that are starting to life restrictions.


When the data in this CDC age/mortality rate table are pictured in a bar graph, the trendline reveals an exponentially rising mortality rate with age. It turns out that 97% of all COVID-19 deaths are of people over the age of forty-five.


A confirming set of data that looks at age and hospitalization rates produces a similar pattern (see below). This graph was produced by the CDC. And it does make sense that those who are more deathly ill would be more likely to require hospitalization. Taken together it makes sense that limiting exposure to this age-related high-risk group should lower both mortality rates and hospitalization rates, thus helping to prevent our health care system from becoming overwhelmed. 


Given how many nursing home and congregate care facility residents are getting sick and dying in the United States it would be tempting to believe that poor medical care in these facilities accounts for the high mortality rates, and this might skew the demographics on age and mortality in the data. There is an unacceptably high number of residents getting infected in these facilities, and this is on the corporations that run these facilities. But the high mortality rate of the infected residents may not be due to inferior care so much as the correlation between age and mortality of the disease. The publically available global data on age and mortality shows the same exponential rise in mortality with advancing age in South Korea, Spain, China, and Italy. (see below)


NON-PERSONAL-RISK GROUP

There is data that suggests as many as 50% of the population may carry the COVID-19 virus while remaining symptom-free. These people apparently test positive for the active virus but remain free of illness. During the period of their contagion, however, they remain a vector for exposing others to COVID-19. This makes them especially dangerous to others while they, and others like them,  are not at risk of illness or death themselves. Furthermore, if the bodies of symptom-free individuals ultimately eliminate the virus, these people may also develop antibodies to prevent another contraction of the virus. If their bodies have some other way of fighting COVID-19, that should be studied investigated as it might lead to effective new therapies.

A careful analysis of the characteristics of this non-personal risk group should be conducted at once to sees if researchers can reliably identify who is likely to be asymptomatic after exposure to COVID-19. If people in this category can be reliably identified, then at the least these would people for whom initial phases of vaccinations efforts would not be as critical. That would greatly focus resources while manufacturing of the eventual vaccine is scaling up.

MODERATE-RISK GROUP

If identifying individuals who are at not at personal risk of coronavirus illness can be accomplished without any special testing (say on a demographic basis) then identifying them would be advantageous for a number of other reasons. One advantage would be to create a middle group of people who fall outside of both the high-risk category and non-personal-risk group. This middle group of people would likely mildly to moderate symptoms when exposed to COVID-19.  This group of people would know that have to maintain appropriate safety precautions to prevent getting sick when they become exposed to the virus. The greater certainty of having this knowledge would help inform their decisions and behavior when reintegrating back into a less regulated environment as states begin opening up the economy.  These are also the people who would most benefit from testing, isolation, and contact tracing to control the spread of the virus. Being a smaller subset of the population, this would help target precious testing capacity and focus it where it would do the most good. When members of this group do recover from the illness, they will presumably have developed immunity that can allow them the non-personal-risk group. 
Reopening the economy will require a transition from our current Lockdown status to a Testing, Isolating, and Contact Tracing (TICT) strategy focused initially on adults re-entering the workforce from the moderate risk and no-personal risk groups. The availability of COVID-19 testing has to be significantly increased by perhaps a factor of 10 times the current rate nationally. Until a vaccine or effective treatment is available, TICT efforts remain the best hope for controlling infection rates.  This three-tiered method of controlling the virus would permit a safer means to gradually reopen the economy and relieve the economic burdens on us all. It would allow us to direct medical and economic resources to where they are most needed and most necessary. When a vaccine is finally developed, this approach would pre-identify those who need to be inoculated first, thus not wasting precious doses on those for whom it is not in immediate need.
Pie in the sky? Maybe, but it is worth consideration.

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

THE SWEDISH COVID-19 RESPONSE MODEL IS WORTH CONSIDERING

by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

The American Institute for Economic Research posted an article on May 6th by Daniel B. Klein that merits attention. It is a follow-up to a piece he wrote on Masks in Sweden. It seems that the Swedes have looked closely at the demographic of COVID-19 deaths in Sweden and decided that is was a relatively low-risk option to allow everyone below age 50 to work or go about their daily lives providing they used took sensible social distancing and infection avoidance precautions while everyone 50 years of age and above is expected to self-quarantine. This advice is based on the demographics of COVID-19 deaths in Sweden. It turns out that the risks faced by people over 50, or in poor health, are far greater than the rest of the population. Could that be true here in the USA?

Before answering that question, consider that from the Swedish perspective we have a binary way of viewing the problem that doesn’t allow us to think of any possible alternatives. Here is an excerpt from the Klein article:
“In fact, a more nuanced approach not only makes more sense, but is more sustainable. That is precisely what the Swedish approach is all about… If you look at the numbers, you will see that there is negligible risk to those aged 4-50 years old. This group also happens to represent the most economically productive group in society as well as the group that spends the most money. So why shut them down?"
What are the demographics of the virus in the United States?

The CDC has posted a table of provisional COVID-19 demographics on their Website. A portion of that table is reproduced below. It shows that the age demographics for COVID-19 mortality is much the same as in Sweden. As the subsequent pie chart below the table shows, fully 97% of COVID-19 deaths occur in people over 45 years of age. Here is a portion of the CDC data:
And here is the pie chart that highlights the significant differential in COVID-19 mortality risks according to just two age groupings: 



In Sweden, all at-risk people have been asked to self-quarantine, but the at-risk definition is for those most at risk of death. Also, anyone caring for or residing with those in the high-risk category are also asked to self-quarantine to help keep the at-risk people safe.

Using the Swedish model, The US could consider a gradual lifting of stay at home orders by age for healthy adults while maintaining sensible social distancing guidelines and heightened hygiene guidelines. At the same time, more resources could be focused on the at-risk populations in congregate facilities to slow down the contagion and fatality rates. The provision would have to be made to allow younger aged adults at risk due to underlying health conditions to self-quarantine without punitive consequences by their employers. It all does seem worthy of our consideration.

One question, perhaps the first question to bring up about the Sweden model is, is it working? To answer that in part, here is the Sweden graph of daily COVID-19 deaths from the Worldometer.info Website:



The answer seems to be relatively favorable given that the peak number of deaths is under 200 in a day and the trend is at least stabilizing after the peak. There are many other questions to be asked. however.  We shall see what happens over the next few weeks. 



Thursday, April 30, 2020

DAILY UPDATE - USA COVID-19 DATA, A GLOBAL COMPARISON


by Brian T. Lynch, MSW
April 30, 2020 12:18 pm

[Scroll down to the bottom each day for daily updates.]

Much of the national and local coverage of this coronavirus outbreak in the United States fails to set the proper global context as to how we are doing at handling it relative to every other country on earth. This lack of perspective gives us a false sense of success at how well we are doing in reducing new infections and COVID-19 deaths. This false sense of being over the hump fuels the polarized political debates that further divide us on every issue. We should be united behind the science of infection controls during a global pandemic rather than driving wedges into the public debate to support or defend our political instincts. The virus certainly doesn't play politics, and neither should we.

So, for a better perspective on how the United States is doing in our efforts to control this epidemic against the backdrop of the rest of the world, here are a few observation based on the number of new infections and deaths from yesterday, April 29th, which is day 48 since the coronavirus national emergency was declared on March 13th:


1. The United States had nearly as many new cases of COVID-19 yesterday than the next seven countries combined. The USA has 35% of the world's new cases but only 4.2% of the global population. 





2. The united states had more COVID-19 deaths yesterday than the next six countries combined. We had 36% of all COVID-19 deaths in the world in the prior 24 hour period.





These comparisons clearly show that COVID-19 infection rates and deaths make the United States a huge outlier in the world.  We are not doing nearly as well as most other countries. And keep in mind that every nation still only has social distancing as the primary means to control the spread of infections. Testing, isolation, and contact tracing are part of the mix, but keeping infected people away from healthy people is all we've got at this point until we have a vaccine or effective treatments available. We are all in the same boat. 

These data, by the way, are continuously updated from the Worldometer.info website, a non-government, non-affiliated international effort to provide global statistics in an easy to access formate. 

So, the question has been asked, why are we doing so poorly compared with other countries? 

The answer is clear and inconvenient for many Americans. We have a lack of political leadership from the top. 

The wealthiest, most inventive, and industrious country in the history of the planet should, by now, have the capacity of testing 10 million citizens per day for the virus. Millions of people who are now unemployed should be hired, by now, to conduct testing, contract tracing, and welfare checks the millions who test positive for the disease and placed under quarantined. We should have in place a national stay at home order the same as every other country. We should have exceptions for stay at home order for essential workers, but we should have massive testing and mandatory guidelines, with aggressive enforcement, for those workers. We should not only have all the PPE we need by now, but we should also be exporting vast quantities of PPE to other nations that don't have our manufacturing capacity. 

This is a picture of the nation we should be, the great country we once were. Nations of the world should be looking to us for guidance and help. Instead, we are inching our way back towards another round of disaster and death. 


All raw data comes from WorldoMeter.info  ______________________________________________________________________


MAY 1, 2020 - Day 49 of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

The USA's new infections are up and the death total is down today. Total COVID-19 tests are at 6,416,393 total tests or 19,311 per million population. We are ranked 44th in the number of tests/million. 








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MAY 2, 2020 - Day 50 of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

The USA's new infections are up to 36,007 new cases. That over 5,000 more cases in a day, more new cases than the next 9 countries combined. The death total (a lagging indicator) is down to 1,798 today. The total COVID-19 tests are at 6,600,878 total tests or 20,241 per million population. We are still ranked 43rd worldwide in the number of tests/million.













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MAY 3, 2020 - Day 51 of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

The USA's new infections are down from yesterday to 29,744 new cases in a day, more new cases than the next 6 countries combined. The death total (a lagging indicator) is also down from yesterday to 1,691 today. The total COVID-19 tests administered yesterday were 328,511 for a cumulative total of 6,931,132 total tests or 20,940 per million population. We are still ranked 42nd worldwide in the number of tests/million.













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MAY 4, 2020 - Day 52 of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

The USA's new infections are down 2 days in a row from to 27,348 new cases, more new cases than the next 5 countries combined. The death total is also down from the past 2 days to 1,154 today. The total COVID-19 tests administered yesterday were 265,608 for a cumulative total of7,196,740 total tests or 21,742 per million population. We are ranked 41st worldwide in the number of tests/million.




When I started tracking how well we are doing fighting the virus compared to other countries a few days back I made the error of not looking back on the data far enough to see the existing pattern. I will correct that here with two bar charts. The first shows the shape of the curve for new cases of COVID-19 in the US and the second shows the death rates over time. Both reveal the spikes and dips in numbers as outbreaks flair and social distancing takes its effect on transmission rates. The overall message is one of encouragement as COVID-19 deaths are trending down and to a lesser extent, so are infection rates. The cautionary message is that some of the flair-up have spiked to record levels of transmission and death. This suggests that we should maintain our social distancing behaviors while being more proactively to take steps to prevent COVID-19 hotspots from flaring up in places where hotspots are likely to occur.


                                      
And because this is a global comparison, here is a side by side comparison of the graphs supplied by Worldometer on global and US deaths.  While the global graph is weekly and the US graph is daily, the overall time period is similar, so the graphs were sized alike to try and get a fair comparison of the shape of the curves, and they appear to be similar in slop.

























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MAY 5, 2020 - Day 53 of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

The USA's new infections are down 3 days in a row to 24,713 new cases, nearly as many new cases as the next 4 countries combined. The death total rose, however, from 1,154 to 1,324. The total COVID-19 tests administered yesterday were 265,691, up just 83 additional tests from yesterday, for a cumulative total of 7,462,431 total tests or 22,545 per million population. We are ranked 41st worldwide in the number of tests/million.












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MAY 6, 2020 - Day 54 of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

The USA's new infections are up slightly to 24,798 new cases, nearly as many new cases as the next 5 countries combined. The death total rose again from 1,324 new deaths to 2,350 in the last 24 hour period. The total COVID-19 tests administered yesterday were 265,507, down 184 fewer tests from yesterday, for a cumulative total of 7,727,938 total tests or 23,347 per million population. We are ranked 41st worldwide in the number of tests/million.





To give us some perspective on how the United States is doing in comparison to other countries that have had a massive COVID-19 outbreak like us, Here are side by side comparisons of the daily number of new deaths and new infection rates for Spain, Italy, and the United States. You can clearly see that the United States is still struggling while the other two countries are clearly getting the virus under control. 
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MAY 7 2020 - Day 55 of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

The USA's new infections are up slightly to 25,459 new cases, nearly as many new cases as the next 2 countries combined, largely because Brazil and Russia are having major outbreaks relative to the rest of the world.  The UK appears to be spiking up on new cases as well. The US death total rose again from 2,350 new deaths to 2,528 the last 24 hour period. The total COVID-19 tests administered yesterday were up over 20k more than the prior period for a cumulative total of 8,005,432 total tests or 24,185 per million population. We are ranked 40th worldwide in the number of tests/million.




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MAY 8, 2020 - Day 56 of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

The USA's new infections are up again today to 29,531 new cases, nearly as many new cases as the next 4 countries combined. The US death total fell slightly to 2,129 new deaths during the last 24 hour period, but that is still higher than the next 8 high death nations combined. The total COVID-19 tests administered yesterday were 292,130, which is 14,636 more tests than the prior period.  The cumulative test total is 8,297,562, or 25,068 per million population. We are ranked 40th worldwide in the number of tests/million. 

[NOTE on TESTING: If the USA increased the number of COVID-19 tests given by 20,000 tests every day, we will achieve the minimum testing capacity of one-million tests per day by mid-June, some 38 days from now. The increase in daily tests since keeping this blog has achieved 20,000 new tests just one day so far, on May 7th.]


















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MAY 9, 2020 - Day 57 of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

The USA's new infections are down slightly today to 29,162 new cases, nearly as many new cases as the next 4 countries combined. The US death total fell a lot to 1687 new deaths during the last 24 hour period, higher than the next 3 high death nations combined. The total number of COVID-19 tests administered yesterday was 590,768 which is up a whopping 298,638 more tests than the prior period.  The cumulative test total is 8,636,435, or 26,029 per million population. We remain ranked 40th worldwide in the number of tests/million. 












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MAY 10, 2020 - Day 58 of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

New US infections are down to 25,524 new cases, nearly as many new cases as the next 3 countries combined. The US death total fell again to 1,422 new deaths during the last 24 hour period, higher than the next 5 high death nations combined. The total number of COVID-19 tests administered yesterday was 281,828.  The cumulative test total is 8,918,263 or 26,943 per million population. We remain ranked 40th worldwide in the number of tests/million. 














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MAY 11, 2020 - Day 59 of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

New US infections are down to 20,329 new cases, nearly as many new cases as the next 2 countries combined. The US death total fell again to 750 new deaths during the last 24 hour period, higher than the next 2 high death nations combined. The total number of COVID-19 tests administered yesterday was 526,262, a big jump.  The cumulative test total is 9,444,525 or 28,533 per million population. We are ranked 39th worldwide in the number of tests/million. 

If only one test was given per person so far (which isn't the case) that would mean 2.86% of the US population would have been tested at this point. 













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MAY 12, 2020 - Day 60 of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

New US infections are down to 18,196 new cases, nearly as many new cases as the next 2 countries combined. The US death total rose to 1,008 new deaths during the last 24 hour period, higher than the next 3 high death nations combined. The total number of COVID-19 tests administered yesterday was 175,330.  The cumulative test total is 9,619,855 or 29,063 per million population. We are ranked 39th worldwide in the number of tests/million. 

If only one test was given per person so far (which isn't the case) that would mean 2.93% of the US population would have been tested as of day 60 of this national health emergency.












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MAY 13, 2020 - Day 61 of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

Great News!  US infections are down to 9,192 new cases marking the first time in weeks that the United States doesn't have the greatest number of new cases in the world. The US death total also dropped to 760 new deaths during the last 24 hour period, slightly higher than the total in the United Kingdom. The total number of COVID-19 tests administered yesterday was 103,388.  The cumulative test total is 9,723,243 or 29,375 per million population. We are ranked 41st worldwide in the number of tests/million. 

If only one test was given per person so far (which isn't the case) that would mean 2.96% of the US population would have been tested as of day 61 of this national health emergency.











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MAY 14, 2020 - Day 62 of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

New US infections rose sharply to 21,712 new cases, as many new cases as the next 2 countries combined. The US death total also rose nearly 1,000 more deaths to 1,172 new deaths during the last 24 hour period, as many deaths as the next 3 countries combined. The total number of COVID-19 tests administered yesterday was 546,753.  The cumulative test total is 10,269,996 or 31,021 per million population. We are ranked 38th worldwide in the number of tests/million. 

If only one test was given per person so far (which isn't the case) that would mean 3.1% of the US population would have been tested as of day 62 of this national health emergency.











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MAY 15, 2020 - Day 63 of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

New US infections rose again to 27,246 new cases, nearly as many new cases as the next 3 countries combined. The US death total also rose to 1,715 new deaths during the last 24 hour period, as many deaths as the next 3 countries combined. The total number of COVID-19 tests administered yesterday was 368,897.  The cumulative test total is 10,638,893 or 32,166 per million population. We are ranked 38th worldwide in the number of tests/million. 

[NOTE: Percent of Population figures are changed as a more accurate US population total of 330,750,000 will be used instead of 328,200,000]

If only one test was given per person so far (which isn't the case) that would mean 3.2% of the US population would have been tested as of day 63 of this national health emergency.












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MAY 16, 2020 - Day 64 of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

The number of new US infections is 26,692 new cases, nearly as many new cases as the next 2 countries combined. The new US deaths numbered 1,595 during the last 24 hours, as many deaths as the next 3 countries combined. The total number of COVID-19 tests administered yesterday was 452,007.  The cumulative test total is 11,090,900 or 33,532 per million. We are ranked 38th worldwide in the number of tests/million. 

If only one test was given per person so far (which isn't the case) that would mean 3.4% of the US population would have been tested as of day 64 of this national health emergency.












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MAY 17, 2020 - Day 65 of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

The number of new US infections is 23,488 new cases, nearly as many new cases as the next 2 countries combined. The new US deaths numbered 1,218 during the last 24 hours, as many deaths as the next 2 countries combined. The total number of COVID-19 tests administered yesterday was 858,725.  The cumulative test total is 11,949,625 or 36,127 per million. We are ranked 39th worldwide in the number of tests/million.  

NOTE: So far this month we are averaging about 375,000 COVID-19 tests per day. For an effective strategy of testing/isolating/contract tracing, we need a minimum of 2 million tests per day and an optimal number of 10 million tests per day.


If only one test was given per person so far (which isn't the case) that would mean 3.6% of the US population would have been tested as of day 65 of this national health emergency.











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MAY 18, 2020 - Day 66of the US Coronavirus National Emergency

The number of new US infections is down to 19,891 new cases yesterday (Sunday), still as many new cases as the next 2 countries combined. The new US deaths numbered 865 during the last 24 hours, as many deaths as the next 2 countries combined. The total number of COVID-19 tests administered yesterday can't be determined because the total number of tests reported for the past 24 hour period is lower than for the prior 24 hour period.  The cumulative test total reported today is 11,875,580 (vs. 11,949,625  reported yesterday)or 35,903 per million (vs. 36,127 per million reported yesterday). We are ranked 39th in the number of tests/million out of 212 countries and territories worldwide. 

If only one test was given per person so far (which isn't the case) that would mean 3.6% of the US population would have been tested as of day 66 of this national health emergency.











US National Health Emergency
MAY 20, 2020 - Day 68 

4.4%  .............. The U.S. percentage of the global population
20%   .............. The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 cases
28.8%  ............ The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 deaths

20,289  ............ New U.S. cases in the past 24 hour period.
1,552.   ............  New U.S. deaths in the past 24 hours.
384,947 ........... The average number of COVID-19 tests given in the past 48 hours
12,625,473 ...... Total U.S. COVID-19 tests give to date
38,229  ............. Number of COVID-19 tests given per one-million population
3.8% ................ Percentage of US population tested (if only one test/person)
38th  ................. Rank among 212 countries for tests given per one-million population

Comments: The Brazil outbreak is catching up to us with 16,517. The number of deaths in Brazil and the UK, the next two countries with the highest number of deaths in the past 24 hours, is slightly more than the total U.S. deaths for that period. The number of tests given is the average over 48 hours because I did not report the numbers for yesterday and so lost that data. (NOTE: This will be the new reporting formate from here on. Easier to read, easier to prepare.)

All raw data comes from WorldoMeter.info 













US National Health Emergency
MAY 21, 2020 - Day 69 

4.4%  .............. The U.S. percentage of the global population
20%   .............. The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 cases
28.8%  ............ The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 deaths

22,140  ............ New U.S. cases in the past 24 hour period.
1,403   ............  New U.S. deaths in the past 24 hours.
1,492,397......... The average number of COVID-19 tests given in the past 24 hours
14,117,870 ...... Total U.S. COVID-19 tests give to date
42,680  ............ Number of COVID-19 tests given per one-million population
4.3%................ Percentage of US population tested (if only one test/person)
34th  ............... Rank among 212 countries for tests given per one-million population


Comments: New U.S. cases are up again slightly while deaths declined slightly. Real progress is being made on testing if the huge jump in numbers of tests given in the past 24 hour period is sustained and not just a correction to the data. Brazil is likely to overtake the U.S. soon at the global leader in new cases as the infection rate slips further out of control. The US remains the nation with the highest death rate beating out the next two nations combined.











US National Health Emergency
MAY 22, 2020 - Day 70 

4.4%  .............. The U.S. percentage of the global population
31.2% ..............The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 cases
28.8%  ............ The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 deaths

28,175  ............ New U.S. cases in the past 24 hour period.
1,418   ............  New U.S. deaths in the past 24 hours.
406,820............ The (2 day) average number of COVID-19 tests given in the past 48 hours
13,439,114 ...... Total U.S. COVID-19 tests give to date
40,627  ............ Number of COVID-19 tests given per one-million population
4.1%................ Percentage of US population tested (if only one test/person)
38th  ............... Rank among 212 countries for tests given per one-million population


Comments: First, note that yesterday's record jump in the number of COVID-19 tests was not apparently accurate and the totals today are lower than yesterday. As a result, I am reporting the number of tests given as a two-day average. Also, note that both the number of cases and the number of deaths are rising. Meanwhile, Brazil is working hard to overtake our out-of-control epidemic numbers. That jump in how the US ranks in tests given per one-million fell back to 38th as a result of the testing correction that was made.








US National Health Emergency
MAY 23, 2020 - Day 71 

4.4%  .............. The U.S. percentage of the global population
31.0% ..............The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 cases
29.2%  ............ The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 deaths

24,197  ............ New U.S. cases in the past 24 hour period.
1,293   ............  New U.S. deaths in the past 24 hours.
470,791............ The number of COVID-19 tests given in the past 24 hours
13,909,950 ...... Total U.S. COVID-19 tests give to date
42,050  ............ Number of COVID-19 tests given per one-million population
4.2%................ Percentage of US population tested (if only one test/person)
38th  ............... Rank among 212 countries for tests given per one-million population


Comments: Only nominal changes in the numbers today for the U.S. Things in Brazil continue to deteriorate but the U.S. is still a world leader in new cases and new deaths. Still, the number of COVID-19 tests needed to effectively detect, isolate, and contact trace is well below what would be needed.








US National Health Emergency
MAY 24, 2020 - Day 72

 4.4%  ............. The U.S. percentage of the global population
29.0% ..............The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 cases
24.7%  ............ The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 deaths

21,929  ............ New U.S. cases in the past 24 hour period.
1,036   ............  New U.S. deaths in the past 24 hours.
448,019............ The number of COVID-19 tests given in the past 24 hours
14,357,969 ...... Total U.S. COVID-19 tests give to date
43,040  ............ Number of COVID-19 tests given per one-million population
4.3%................ Percentage of US population tested (if only one test/person)
35th  ............... Rank among 212 countries for tests given per one-million population


Comments: There are nominal declines in the reported numbers (holiday weekend effect, perhaps), yet relative to other nations, where the pandemic numbers are growing, the U.S. is starting to look better in contrast. We are still the global center of both new cases and new deaths. Brazil may surpass us soon.








US National Health Emergency
MAY 25, 2020 - Day 73

 4.4%  ............. The U.S. percentage of the global population
29.0% ..............The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 cases
24.7%  ............ The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 deaths

19,608  ............ New U.S. cases in the past 24 hour period.
612  ................  New U.S. deaths in the past 24 hours.
139,787............ The number of COVID-19 tests given in the past 24 hours
14,749,756 ...... Total U.S. COVID-19 tests give to date
44,587 ............ Number of COVID-19 tests given per one-million population
4.5%................ Percentage of US population tested (if only one test/person)
36th  ............... Rank among 212 countries for tests given per one-million population


Comments: Brazil has overtaken the U.S.A. in the number of new tests, but we still have the most new cases over the past 24 hours. Other changes are nominal.










US National Health Emergency
MAY 26, 2020 - Day 74

 4.4%  ............. The U.S. percentage of the global population
30.3% ..............The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 cases
28.6%  ............ The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 deaths

19,790  ............ New U.S. cases in the past 24 hour period.
505  ................  New U.S. deaths in the past 24 hours.
437,882 ........... The number of COVID-19 tests given in the past 24 hours
15,187,647 ...... Total U.S. COVID-19 tests give to date
45,910 ............ Number of COVID-19 tests given per one-million population
4.6%................ Percentage of US population tested (if only one test/person)
35th  ............... Rank among 212 countries for tests given per one-million population


Comments: The U.S.A. still leads the world in the number of new COVID-19 cases by is second, behind Brazil in the number of new deaths. Relative to the rest of the world, the percentage of total COVID-19 cases remains very high compared to our population and it appears to be rising as a percentage. There is no significant increase over time in testing and to date less than 5% of our people have received a COVID-19 test.







US National Health Emergency
MAY 27, 2020 - Day 75

 4.4%  ............. The U.S. percentage of the global population
30.4% ..............The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 cases
28.5%  ............ The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 deaths

19,049 ............ New U.S. cases in the past 24 hour period.
774 ................  New U.S. deaths in the past 24 hours.
344,512 .......... The number of COVID-19 tests given in the past 24 hours
15,532,159...... Total U.S. COVID-19 tests give to date
46,951 ............ Number of COVID-19 tests given per one-million population
4.7%................ Percentage of US population tested (if only one test/person)
35th  ............... Rank among 212 countries for tests given per one-million people


Comments:  Seventy-five days into this National Health Emergency and on average a COVID-19 death happens every 58 seconds. Testing, which is key to controlling the virus, is abysmally low. Yesterday the Trump administration released its plan for testing and contact tracing which is to leave that up to the states (to fund and compete for test kits). The USA ranks 35 out of 212 countries on the number of tests per million people with less than 5% of our population having been tested at all.









US National Health Emergency
MAY 28, 2020 - Day 76

 4.4%  ............. The U.S. percentage of the global population
30.2% ..............The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 cases
28.6%  ............ The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 deaths

20,546 ............ New U.S. cases in the past 24 hour period.
1,535 .............  New U.S. deaths in the past 24 hours.
343,314 .......... The number of COVID-19 tests given in the past 24 hours
15,875,473...... Total U.S. COVID-19 tests give to date
47,988 ............ Number of COVID-19 tests given per one-million population
5.3%................ Percentage of US population tested (if only one test/person)
35th  ............... Rank among 212 countries for tests given per one-million people


Comments: Today is the first day that the US was not #1 in the world for new COVID-19 cases. While our new case numbers increased from yesterday, Brazil took over the #1 spot. We did lead Brazil in the number of new COVID-19 related death with a jump from 774 yesterday to 1,535 over the past 24 hour period.



US National Health Emergency
MAY 29, 2020 - Day 77

Missed recording today's data.

US National Health Emergency
MAY 30, 2020 - Day 78

4.4%  ............. The U.S. percentage of the global population
29.8% ..............The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 cases
28.5%  ............ The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 deaths

25,069 ............ New U.S. cases in the past 24 hour period.
1,180 .............  New U.S. deaths in the past 24 hours.
467,658 ........... The Avg. daily number of COVID-19 tests given in the past 48 hours
16,810,778...... Total U.S. COVID-19 tests give to date
50,814 ............ Number of COVID-19 tests given per one-million population
5.1%................ Percentage of US population tested (if only one test/person)
34th  ............... Rank among 212 countries for tests given per one-million people

Comments: We have had 47,727 new COVID-19 cases in the past two days. The USA remains number one in new deaths. Tasting capacity does not seem to be rising much.













US National Health Emergency
MAY 31, 2020 - Day 79

4.4%  ............. The U.S. percentage of the global population
29.5% ..............The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 cases
28.5%  ............ The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 deaths

23,290 ............ New U.S. cases in the past 24 hour period.
1,015 .............  New U.S. deaths in the past 24 hours.
460,063 ........... The daily number of COVID-19 tests given in the past 24 hours
17,270,841...... Total U.S. COVID-19 tests give to date
52,203 ............ Number of COVID-19 tests given per one-million population
5.2%................ Percentage of US population tested (if only one test/person)
34th  ............... Rank among 212 countries for tests given per one-million people

Comments: Brazil again takes the top spot for new cases while the USA retains the top spot for the number of new deaths. Testing is down slightly. Other changes are nominal. We are 4.4% of the world's population but still have nearly 30% of the world's COVID-19 cases (and deaths).  Also, to put to rest any more talk about this virus being just another flu, COVID-19 may be a blood vessel disease, which explains many of the infection’s bizarre symptoms.
https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab



US National Health Emergency
June 1, 2020 - Day 80

Missed Data

US National Health Emergency
June 2, 2020 - Day 81

4.4%  ............. The U.S. percentage of the global population
29.2% ..............The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 cases
28.3%  ............ The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 deaths

21,135  ............ New U.S. cases in the past 24 hour period.
730     .............  New U.S. deaths in the past 24 hours.
439600 ........... The avg. number of COVID-19 tests given in the past 48 hours
18,159,053 ..... Total U.S. COVID-19 tests give to date
54,859  ............ Number of COVID-19 tests given per one-million population
5.5%................ Percentage of US population tested (if only one test/person)
35th  ............... Rank among 212 countries for tests given per one-million people

Comments:  (Data not saved from June 1st) The USA is back to being first in the highest number of new cases of COVID-19 in the past 24 hours period and second in deaths from the virus. There is still no progress in scaling up testing rates. They remain insufficient for the purpose of testing/isolating/contact tracing strategies.






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US National Health Emergency
June 3, 2020 - Day 82

4.4%  .............. The U.S. percentage of the global population
29.2% ..............The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 cases
28.3%  ............ The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 deaths

21,852  ............ New U.S. cases in the past 24 hour period.
1,134   ............  New U.S. deaths in the past 24 hours.
453,123 ........... The avg. number of COVID-19 tests given in the past 48 hours
18,603,174  ..... Total U.S. COVID-19 tests give to date
56,228  ............ Number of COVID-19 tests given per one-million population
5.6%................ Percentage of US population tested (if only one test/person)
35th  ............... Rank among 212 countries for tests given per one-million people

Comments:  Brazil, for the first time, is #1 in both new COVID-19 cases and deaths in the past 24 hour period. Still, the USA has almost as many total COVID-19 cases as the next 7 highest countries combined (Brazil, Russia, Spain, UK, Italy, India, Germany). We are still ranked 35th in the world for the number of tests administered per million population and 94.9% of all US citizens have yet to be tested.








US National Health Emergency
June 4, 2020 - Day 83

No data collected today

US National Health Emergency
June 5, 2020 - Day 84

4.4%  .............. The U.S. percentage of the global population
28.8% ..............The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 cases
28.1%  ............ The U.S. percentage of global COVID-19 deaths

21,882  ............ New U.S. cases in the past 24 hour period.
1,232   ............  New U.S. deaths in the past 24 hours.
482,448 ........... The avg. number of COVID-19 tests given in the past 48 hours
19,568,069  ..... Total U.S. COVID-19 tests give to date
59,142  ............ Number of COVID-19 tests given per one-million population
5.9%................ Percentage of US population tested (if only one test/person)
33rd  ............... Rank among 212 countries for tests given per one-million people

Comments:  Brazil leads the world in the highest number of new cases and most new COVID-19 deaths. USA is second in the highest number of new cases and third, behind Mexico, in the highest number of deaths in the past 24 hour period.



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