Friday, August 10, 2012

Republicans Have a 5% Election Fraud Handicap? A Systemic Advantage Computer Models Must Add

MON AUG 06, 2012 AT 09:20 PM PDT

Obama Landslide? Not with a 3% Lead and 5% Fraud Factor

The 2012 Presidential True Vote and Election Fraud Simulation Model (TVM) is a combination of 1) pre-election Monte Carlo Simulation Election Model, based on the latest state polling and 2) post-election True Vote Model, based on a feasible estimate of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding estimated vote shares. The model will be updated periodically for the latest state and national polls.
The model projections assume the election is held on the date of the latest poll date.
The latest state and national polls show that Obama has a 2-4% lead over Romney.
Obama needs a True Vote of at least 55% in order to overcome the historic 4-5% red-shift (the fraud factor). In other words he needs to win by a 10% True Vote Margin.
Pre-election Polls and the”Horse Race”
The Real Clear Politics website archives the latest polls on a daily basis. The model uses 2008 recorded vote shares for states that have not yet been polled. These are one-sided states in which the outcome is a near certainty...
Virtually all of the current national polls are of Registered Voters (RV). An exception is Rasmussen, a GOP pollster, whose daily tracking poll is a Likely Voter (LV) subset of the RV.
One month before the election, pollsters convert from the full RV sampleto the LV subsample using the "Likely Voter Cutoff Model". The pollsters expect there will be fraud, so they prepare for it. The RV polls are transformed to LV subsets in order to promote an artificial “horse race”. The pundits want to predict the recorded vote. The closer they are, the better they look. But they never mention that it’s the fraud factor that gets them close. LV polls are usually good predictors of the fraudulent recorded vote.
The Likely Voter Cutoff Model effectively understates the potential turnout of millions of new Democratic voters who do not pass the LVCM. The pollsters and the pundits invariably claim that the race is "tightening" and LV polls are better predictors. And it's: they are better predictors of the fraudulent recorded vote.
1988-2008 Exit Poll Discrepancies
Based on the historic record, Obama needs at least 55% to overcome systemic built-in fraud. In 2008 Obama had a 58% weighted average in the unadjusted STATE exit polls (76,000 respondents). He had 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (a 17,836 respondent subset of the state polls).
But for the same 17,836 respondents, the FINAL National Exit poll was forced to match the 52.9% recorded share. Obama’s 18% state aggregate unadjusted exit poll margin was reduced to 7.5% But that’s to be expected; all finals are forced to match the recorded vote.
Election fraud cut 4% from the average 1988-2008 Democratic presidential share. The Democrats won the unadjusted exit polls by 52-42%, but their recorded vote margin was just 48-46%.
Democratic True Vote = Recorded Vote + Fraud Factor
Final exit polls are always forced to match the recorded votes that were predicted by the final pre-election LV polls.

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