Data-Driven Viewpoints: New Jersey and the Second Wave Rising

by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

New Jersey ranked 15th on November 17, 2010, for most new U.S. infections in a day. New Jersey had almost exactly the same 7-day average number of new COVID-19 cases as it did during the peak of infections back in April. The peak average of 3,620 new cases per day in April had doubled from the number 12 days prior. The 3,624 average new cases per day on November 17th is double what it was 13 days ago.

A trip to a local food store in Morris County, NJ, on November 18,2021, found four out of five store employees potentially exposing customers to infection by not keeping their masks in place. A visit to the local Home Depot on the same day found over a half-dozen employees and a handful of customers with either no masks or with their masks down or below their noses. A review of New Jersey’s mask usage (based on survey data) shows that only 72% of those surveyed report they always wearing masks in public. That’s up from 63% in June, but still far short of the 95% compliance epidemiologists recommend.

In April, data obtained through cell phone signals showed that social distancing had reduced normal social mobility by 62 percent. As of November 6th, our social mobility was only down by 33%, nearly half what it had been in April. Just a simple drive during rush-hour is enough to demonstrate just how mobile we are in the midst of this second surge.

New Jersey is doing better with respect to hospital capacity now vs. April, but the projections are dire. In April the total number of people needing hospital beds topped our bed capacity while the number of ICU beds needed was double what was available. Hospital bed occupancy now is 13% of capacity while occupied ICU beds are half of our total ICU bed capacity. Projections suggest that by December 29th we will be at capacity for ICU beds and every hospital bed will be filled by February 11, 2021. (Unless we change our ways, of course).

In Morris County the COVID-19 surge is a bit less severe than in other counties in New Jersey. We ranked 11th on November 17th for daily new cases.

For a closer look at how residents of Morris County are doing during the current surge in COVID-19 cases, a portion of the daily data published by the Morris County Office of Health Management Services is including the table below. The total number of new cases by municipalities over a seven-day period between November 10th thru the 17th were extracted from the raw totals. The totals per municipality don’t mean much without a sense for the population size of each town. To draw a fairer municipal comparison, population figures were added to the table and the number of new cases per 1,000 residents was calculated. The results were then ranked by municipalities from the highest to lowest number of new cases per thousand in a week.

We still can’t really draw any firm conclusion about community spread in any given municipality using this analysis in part because the numbers are highly variable from week to week, but also because the virus doesn’t respect municipal borders. These results are most useful if used to identify broader areas where community spread seems to be more pronounced. And it does do this.

The top five municipalities have significantly more cases per 1,000 population than the rest of the county. These are among the most demographically diverse municipalities, but the top four are also less wealthy communities that happen to be geographically contiguous. Dover is also a major transportation hub in the county. If you combine the populations and new weekly infections in what is called the greater Dover area, there are 5.7 cases per thousand. That is at least 3 new cases per thousand more than in any other Morris County municipality except for Morristown. This should be useful information for state and county officials seeking to target attention and resources where they will do the most good in controlling community spread.

This is also a cautionary story for everyone living in New Jersey. Alarm bells should be going off. New Jersey is entering the worst phase of this pandemic from where we were in April when infection rates were at their peak. Prevention efforts need to be as rigorous. Risky social activities need to be curtailed or at least scaled back. We need better compliance with mask-wearing in public, using better masks and using them properly. Vaccines are just over the horizon, but we have a big hill to climb before we get to that promised land. It is too late already to stop the second wave of the virus to rise above the first, but we do have some control over just how bad things get... if we act now.

Update: Morris County New Cases for the 7-day period from 11/17 to 11/23
Comments: The actual municipal rankings of new cases per 1,000 population in the table below will vary from week to week because of the low population sizes in some towns. The real value is to see the larger areas where community spread of the virus is more of a concern so residents can take additional precautions. As was true last week, the 30,000 residents in the greater Dover area and residents in the Morristown area have the most community spread.
To put Morris County into the larger context, it was 7th yesterday out of 21 counties with 299 new cases. New Jersey was 14th out of 50 states yesterday with 4,790 new cases. Our 7-day average of new cases per day has doubled in just the last 17 days. The 7-day average today is about 12% higher than the first wave peak back on April 7th. Based on current mandates, mask usage (survey data), and social distancing practices (cell phone data) in the state, our new cases per day total is expected to double again before January 1st.