New COVID Variants Threaten Progress and What We Can Do About That

 by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

I am highlighting today's Daily Pandemic Diary in this separate post because I believe the message is critical for everyone, and I want more people to have access to this information. To read other posts in the Daily Pandemic Diary you can click on this hyperlink. 

DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY 

NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY

DAY 301  - JANUARY 30, 2021

UNDERCOUNT

Missouri and Nebraska have not posted their COVID data again today. Vermont, Alaska, and Wyoming either had no deaths or didn't post them. 

COMMENTS

Today, the big news is that the virus is mutating into vaccine-resistant variants faster than scientists expected. The reason is clear. According to the LA Times piece, "... the speedy evolution is largely a result of the virus’ unchecked spread." 

Whenever any cell or virus replicates, there is a slim chance that a mistake or mutation happens. The faster a virus replicates the more frequently these mistakes happen. Most mistakes do nothing, but every so often, by chance, a mistake makes the virus heartier. This new "variant" is more successful at replication. It eventually out-competes the original strain, becomes the dominant strain, and this mutation process continues. 

The number of times a virus replicates in the human body is such that the rate of mutations is low and the likelihood of a beneficial mutation occurring is extremely rare. But, multiply the speed of mutations in an individual by 26 million, which is the number of active COVID-19 cases worldwide, and you greatly speed up the rate at which more robust variants emerge. The more people who are sick with the coronavirus, the quicker the vaccine becomes less effective. The race for an effective vaccine isn't over.

What can be done to keep new resistant variants from disrupting our progress? Three ideas come to mind. We can try to speed up how quickly scientists can identify more robust variants and modify existing vaccines to counter the variants. We have seen already how slow that process can be. The speed of development for the current vaccines is already record-breaking. We can, and should, greatly pick-up the pace of getting people vaccinated all around the world. This is an enormous task and would require a level of global effort and cooperation that is unparalleled in human history. The third, most practical and effective way to slow the speed of new, more robust variants is to greatly reduce the spread of the infection. So, it all comes back to the basics of prevention. 

properly wear good quality masks and keep yourself six or more feet from everyone who is not in your immediate household. Don't go indoors to bars, restaurants, or any other place where you might have to remove your mask to eat or drink unless they are scrubbing the air in the facility. Stay away from crowds, outdoors or indoors. If you must be in a building where you are around strangers, such as a doctor's office, etc., make sure there are air scrubbers running (medical-grade HEPA air filters) or proper air exchangers operating. Make sure everyone has the ability to stay 6 feet apart. 

And remember, everyone in a hot zone everywhere on earth needs rapid access to a vaccine and all the PPE necessary to prevent the spread of the virus. A new variant anywhere in the world will make its way everywhere else on earth. We are all in this together, so PPE and vaccines must be readily available in every county for all of us to be safe here at home.