Reflections (And Data) on Global Warming

A Failed Experiment

By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOFF

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/22/opinion/kristof-a-failed-experiment.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20121122&_r=0

 

In upper-middle-class suburbs on the East Coast, the newest must-have isn’t a $7,500 Sub-Zero refrigerator. It’s a standby generator that automatically flips on backup power to an entire house when the electrical grid goes out. [snip]

 

More broadly, the lust for generators is a reflection of our antiquated electrical grid and failure to address climate change. The American Society of Civil Engineers gave our grid, prone to bottlenecks and blackouts, a grade of D+ in 2009. [snip]

The National Climatic Data Center has just reported that October was the 332nd month in a row of above-average global temperatures. As the environmental Web site Grist reported, that means that nobody younger than 27 has lived for a single month with colder-than-average global temperatures, yet climate change wasn’t even much of an issue in the 2012 campaign. Likewise, the World Economic Forum ranks American infrastructure 25th in the world, down from 8th in 2003-4, yet infrastructure is barely mentioned by politicians.  [Read it all at the above link]

If you’re 27 or younger, you’ve never experienced a colder-than-average month

By Philip Bump

http://grist.org/news/if-youre-27-or-younger-youve-never-experienced-a-colder-than-average-month/

This image sums up 2012, temperature-wise.

Nowhere on the surface of the planet have we seen any record cold temperatures over the course of the year so far. Every land surface in the world saw warmer-than-average temperatures except Alaska and the eastern tip of Russia. The continental United States has been blanketed with record warmth — and the seas just off the East Coast have been much warmer than average, for which Sandy sends her thanks.

State of the Climate
Global Analysis - October 2012

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Climatic Data Center

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/10

Global Highlights

• The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for October 2012 tied with 2008 as the fifth warmest October on record, at 0.63°C (1.13°F) above the 20^thcentury average of 14.0°C (57.1°F). Records began in 1880.
• The globally-averaged land surface temperature for October 2012 was the eighth warmest October on record, at 0.92°C (1.66°F) above average. The globally-averaged ocean surface temperature tied with 2004 as the fourth warmest October on record, at 0.52°C (0.94°F) above average.
• The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for January–October 2012 was the eighth warmest such period on record, at 0.58°C (1.04°F) above the 20^thcentury average.

National Overview:

Supplemental October, January-October, and Sandy Information

• Year-to-date temperature evolution for select U.S. cities
• Divisional temperature departures
• Year-to-date temperature evolution for contiguous U.S.
• Warmest 12-month periods for contiguous U.S.
• October daily temperature extremes
• Post-tropical cyclone Sandy: Precipitation
• Post-tropical cyclone Sandy: Wind and storm surge
• Post-tropical cyclone Sandy: Barometric pressure records

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·                 Climate Highlights — October

• The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during October was 53.9°F, just 0.3°F below the long-term average, ending a 16-month streak of above-average temperatures for the lower 48 that began in June 2011.
• Below-average temperatures stretched from the Canadian border to the Gulf of Mexico during October, with 19 states having monthly temperatures below their 20^th century averages. The Southwest and the Northeast were the only two areas of the country with above average temperatures.
• The October nationally-averaged precipitation total of 2.19 inches was slightly above the long-term average.
• Wetter-than-average conditions stretched from the Northwest, through the Northern Plains, into the Midwest and the Northeast. Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, and Washington had October precipitation totals among their ten wettest.Below-average precipitation was observed across the Southern Rockies, and Central and Southern Plains. Texas had its ninth driest October on record.
• The October 30, 2012 U.S. Drought Monitor showed 60.2 percent of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought, less than the 64.6 percent at the beginning of October. Drought conditions improved across parts of the Midwest and Northeast, while drought conditions worsened across parts of the Northern Rockies.
• Based on NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI), the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand for October 2012 was near average.

·                 Climate Highlights — Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy

• Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, New Jersey on October 29 after it transitioned from a tropical to a post-tropical cyclone. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 80 miles per hour and a central minimum pressure of 946 millibars at landfall. This preliminary pressure reading was potentially a record low for the Northeast coast, and is pending further review. Sandy’s large size, with tropical storm force winds extending nearly 500 miles from the center, led to the large-scale flooding, wind damage, mass power outages, and over 100 fatalities along much of the East Coast.
• Sandy brought large storm surge and high water levels to much of the coastal Northeast with New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut particularly hard hit. The 13.88-foot observed water level at The Battery in New York City was an all-time record for the location, smashing the previous record set in 1960 during Hurricane Donna by more than three feet. The Delaware River in Philadelphia also reached a new record high water level of 10.6 feet, surpassing the previous record of 10.5 feet which was set in April 2011 from record rainfall. This new record was due to a combination of heavy precipitation and storm surge.
• Sandy also brought blizzard conditions to the Central and Southern Appalachians, where over a foot of snow fell in six states from North Carolina to Pennsylvania, shattering all time October monthly and single storm snowfall records. Snowfall totals across the highest elevations approached three feet.

·                 Climate Highlights — Year-to-Date (January-October)

• The January-October period was the warmest first ten months of any year on record for the contiguous United States. The national temperature of 58.4°F was 3.4°F above the 20^th century average, and 1.1°F above the previous record warm January-October of 2000. During the 10-month period, 21 states were record warm and an additional 25 states had year-to-date temperatures among their ten warmest. Only Washington had a statewide temperature near average for the period.
• January-October 2012 was the 16^th driest such period on record for the contiguous U.S. with a precipitation total 1.9 inches below the average of 24.78 inches.
• Drier-than-average conditions were present from the Southwest, through the Rockies, across the Plains and into the Midwest. Nebraska and Wyoming were both record dry for the period. Nebraska’s statewide precipitation total of 11.92 inches was 9.40 inches below average, while Wyoming’s precipitation of 6.57 inches was 5.20 inches below average.
• The Gulf Coast, parts of the Northeast, and the Pacific Northwest were wetter than average during January-October. Washington’s year-to-date precipitation total was 33.23 inches, 7.36 inches above average, and the fourth wettest January-October on record.
• The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (USCEI), an index that tracks the highest and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, drought and tropical cyclones across the contiguous U.S., was nearly twice the average value during the January-October period, and marked the second highest USCEI value for the period. Extremes in warm daytime temperatures, warm nighttime temperatures, and the spatial extent of drought conditions contributed to the record high USCEI value.
• Based on NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI), the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand for January-October 2012 was much below average and the lowest year-to-date value in the 118-year period of record.

·                 Climate Highlights — 12-month period (November 2011-October 2012)

• The November 2011-October 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., with an average temperature of 55.2°F, 3.2°F above the long-term average. This 12-month temperature average was the sixth warmest of any 12-month period on record for the contiguous United States. The seven warmest 12-month periods have all ended during 2012.

The Global Competitiveness Index (United States)

http://reports.weforum.org/global-competitiveness-report-2012-2013/

                                                                                                      RANK     SCORE

                                                                                                  (out of 144)     (1-7)  

GCI 2012–2013 ......................................................... 7 ....... 5.5

GCI 2011–2012 (out of 142) ........................................ 5 ........5.4

GCI 2010–2011 (out of 139) ........................................ 4 ........5.4

Basic requirements (20.0%) .......................................33 ........5.1

Institutions ............................................................... 41 ........4.6

Infrastructure ............................................................ 14 ........5.8

Macroeconomic environment .................................... 111 ........4.0

Health and primary education ..................................... 34 ........6.1

Efficiency enhancers (50.0%) ........................................2 ........5.6

Higher education and training ....................................... 8 ........5.7

Goods market efficiency  ........................................... 23 ........4.9

Labor market efficiency ............................................... 6 ........5.4

Financial market development .................................... 16 ........5.1

Technological readiness ............................................. 11 ........5.8

Market size ................................................................ 1 ........6.9

Innovation and sophistication factors (30.0%) ..................7 ........5.4

Business sophistication  ............................................ 10 ........5.3

Innovation ................................................................... 6 ........5.5

The most problematic factors for doing business