by Brian T. Lynch, MSW
Welcome to the Daily Pandemic Diary for November 2020. The purpose here is to provide a global context to how our nation is coping with the pandemic and to supply information about COVID-19 that might be helpful to the readers. This blog continues the daily collection of data begun in the Daily Update blog and the monthly Daily Pandemic Diaries linked below. The raw data comes from the independent, international non-profit data reporting organization called Worldometer.info. Test Positivity data comes from Johns Hopkins University. Data in red are calculated values.
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 240 - NOVEMBER 30, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
The new cases or new deaths were unreported in MI, CT, and RI. Daily deaths were unreported in KS, VT, ME, WY, AK, and WA. The recent downturn in the statistical trends are entirely the result of under-reporting over the long Thanksgiving weekend
COMMENTS
Today is day 240 of our National Health Emergency and the last day of November. It's time for a review.
- We started the month first in the amount of community spread and added to that lead all month long.
- We started with 86,293 infections in a day and (despite a significant undercount) ended with 138,096 new cases yesterday.
- That's more than 2.5 times India's daily new cases.
- Our global share of total COVID cases rose from 20.3% on November 1st. to 21.8% today, yet our global share of COVID deaths continued to decline from 19.7% to 18.6% - due in large part because of a systematic undercount of COVID deaths in the United States [See days 234, 238, 239 below].
- The spread of new infections more than doubled from the beginning of the month.
- While fewer new deaths were recorded yesterday than on November 1st. (again because of unreported deaths) the 7-day average number of deaths per day rose by 73%.
- 37,005 people died of COVID-19 this month
- 4.35 million people were infected with COVID-19 in November.
- We have 13.7 million total coronavirus cases
- We have 273,077 deaths this month.
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 239 - NOVEMBER 29, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
Today's data do not include new case reports or new death reports from LA, CT, or RI nor any new death reports from AL, SC, WA, DE, KS, WY, or HI.
COMMENTS
The long holiday weekend has suppressed our data reporting longer than usual, making the data appear better than they are. Even so, the U.S. numbers are so high that we stand out as an outlier among nations. We have nearly twice the deaths and 2.8 times the number of daily new cases as does Brazil, which has the next highest totals. We had more new cases yesterday than all of Asia and more new cases than Africa and South America combined. Only about four out of every 100 people on earth live here, yet 25 out of 100 new COVID-19 cases happened here despite our undercount. The undercount is so significant that we appear to be bending the curve. Don't be mislead if you hear anyone making that claim. Until the backlog is added back into the totals it is not possible to make that judgment.
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 238 - NOVEMBER 28, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
There are no new cases reports or death reports from MO or ME. There are no new death reports in MT, DC, AR, WV, AL, WY, or AK.
COMMENTS
Getting accurate statistics on the status of our COVID-19 epidemic is getting increasingly difficult. Anyone who has been following this diary knows that I had to add the daily undercount as a feature because of the number of days on which statistics are missing from various states. There is no clear evidence that all of the missing data is being added back on subsequent days. The lack of daily reporting is all the more troubling because the data collection is handled by private companies directly from individual health providers and given directly to the federal DHHS. What are their criteria for not report any state statistics? Additionally, while the CDC reporting criteria are uniform and very clear, many states aren't complying, According to a Washington Post report:
"Fewer than half the states are following federal recommendations to report probable novel coronavirus cases and deaths, marking what experts say is an unusual break with public health practices that leads to inconsistent data collection and undercounts of the disease’s impact."
Here is an example of a probable COVID-19 case based on CDC criteria: The wife of a man with a laboratory-confirmed case of COVID-19 come down with symptoms of the virus herself. She tests positive on a rapid antigen test and her doctor diagnoses her as having COVID-19 based on her exposure to her husband, the symptoms she is experiencing, and the rapid test results. Under the CDC guidelines, this doctor is expected to report her as a probable coronavirus case. Why probable? Because she wasn't given the most definitive PCR lab test. There is little clinical doubt that this woman has the virus, but it isn't being reported in over 24 states, according to the Washington Post investigation. And if she died, and no PCR test was performed, her death may or may not be recorded as a COVID-19 death. Also from the WP article:
The failure of many states to document probable coronavirus cases and deaths is “historic in many ways because there are lots of probable case classifications and probables are regularly and normally reported on,” said Janet Hamilton, the CSTE executive director. “We are definitely concerned about the undercounting of covid-19 deaths and cases.”
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 237- NOVEMBER 27, 2020
BLACK- OUT FRIDAY
UNDERCOUNT
Due to the Thanksgiving Holiday (I presume) 17 state reports of new cases and deaths are absent. Additionally, 3 states' data on new death totals are absent. The states that have no data reported are FL, OH, MI, NC, NM, LA, MA, SC, OK, UT, KY, NE, SD, RI, WY, NH, and VT. The three states with new case numbers but no death reports are KS, ME, and D.C.
COMMENTS
There is nothing much to be gleaned from the new case numbers or daily death totals today except to point out that despite having no reports from seventeen states, the U.S. still had nearly 20% of the global total for new COVID-19 cases yesterday.
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 236 - NOVEMBER 26, 2020
THANKSGIVING DAY
UNDERCOUNT
No new case numbers or death reports from Nebraska again. No death numbers from Alaska.COMMENTS.
To all the family and friends of the 2,304 people who died yesterday, my sincere condolences. To the family and friends of the 268,221 who died this year, I am very sorry for your loss and hope you can find some solace in your memories of them. For the 5,064,401 people who currently have an active COVID-19 status, my best wishes for a quick and full recovery and I hope you find much to be grateful for today. For the 7,850,579 people who caught the virus and recovered, I share in being thankful for your restored health and for the relief that must have brought to your loved ones. To everyone else in this country, I hope you have a SAFE and HAPPY THANKSGIVING!
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 235 - NOVEMBER 25, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
COMMENTS
The world hit a milestone of 60 million COVID-19 infections yesterday. Our share of that total is 5 times more than it should be based on our share of the global population. Test positivity rates are inching down
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 234 - NOVEMBER 24, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
Still no reports of new cases or deaths from Nebraska. The following state had no death reports: AZ, MS, SD, AK, NH, and possibly HI.
COMMENTS
Death statistics appear to be falling further and further behind, and the totals are likely to be significantly higher than what is being reported. This should be the subject of a journalistic investigation. Daily new cases are up despite no data from Nebraska. One out of every three people in the world who got infected with COVID-19 yesterday lives in the United States.
If the numbers being reported are mostly accurate, there are some early signs that we may be approaching the peak in this surge of infections. The doubling time for the 7-day average of daily new cases was 20 days yesterday, down from 18 days. Also, the test positivity rate has declined or held steady for the past three days. These data are probably not significant yet, but any positive sign is welcome. Let's all mask up, wash our hands, stay home mostly, limit our travel, avoid large gatherings or crowded spaces, keep our social distance, raise the humidity above 40% in our homes and offices, etc. Stay safe.
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 233 - NOVEMBER 23, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
There are no reports from MI, MO, KS, NE, CT, and RI. Additionally, more death reports are missing from D.C., WY, AL, WA, VA, and WI.COMMENTS
There isn't much that can be said about the statistic with so many states not reporting, except to point out that despite the missing numbers we are still doing very poorly compared with the rest of the world.
More good news was made on the vaccine front today. "Drugmaker AstraZeneca said Monday that late-stage trials showed its COVID-19 vaccine is highly effective [90%, buoying the prospects of a relatively cheap, easy-to-store product that may become the vaccine of choice for the developing world."
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 232 - NOVEMBER 22, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
No new case or death reports from LA, NE, CT, or RI. No death reports from KS, WY, DE, or WA.Comment: Weekend reporting is never accurate enough to draw any firm conclusions. The test positivity rate does appear slightly lower, which is a good sign, but the data on which it relies may be under-reported on the weekends as well. What can be said with certainty is that community spread and COVID-19 deaths in the United States remain proportionally far greater here than in the rest of the world.
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 231 - NOVEMBER 21, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
Comments
The U.S. already topped 200,000 new infections in a day yesterday and about 2,000 deaths (an undercount). Globally, the U.S. total of new cases equals nearly the combined totals in the next nine countries in the world. Hospital and ICU beds are filling up nationally and many locations are at or above capacity already.
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 230 - NOVEMBER 20, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
Comments
Since November 1st our global share of new infections (new cases) has gone up nearly a percentage point while our global share of COVID deaths continues to decline. Yesterday's number of new cases, over 192 thousand, is a world record. The 7-day average of new cases is double what it was 19 days ago while the 7-day average of COVID deaths in a day (as high as it is) is double what it was 71 days ago, back in July. We are on track for over 200,000 new cases per day, as projected. There is no evidence yet to suggest we are bending down the curve. Only 9 countries in the world had more cases than the state of Texas.
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 249 - NOVEMBER 19, 2020
https://www.statnews.com/2020/09/09/193-million-covid-19-tests-per-month-report/UNDERCOUNT
Nebraska is still not reporting anything and Wyoming is still not reporting death statistics.Comments: With death reports missing from two states yesterday we still saw nearly 2,000 people die from COVID-19 yesterday. My first thoughts are with all of those grieving families. With a vaccine just on the horizon, every death from here on feels even more tragic, especially before Thanksgiving and the December holiday season. We can still save over 100,000 lives between now and the new year by just wearing a good mask in public and keeping six feet of separation from anyone with whom we aren't living. Please! Let's drop the politics and adopt the spirit of charity to keep each other safe.
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 248 - NOVEMBER 18, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
Comments: The virus continues to spread every day, but there is good news on the vaccine front. Pfizer said on Wednesday that its coronavirus vaccine was 95 percent effective and had no serious side effects. This comes at the conclusion of the first of a late-stage trial. The company will apply for an FDA emergency authorization to begin the distribution of the two-dose vaccine. The initial cost will be free to the public under a $1.95 billion deal the federal government reached with Pfizer for 100 million doses. There should be enough vaccine to vaccinate about 12 million Americans by year-end. Assuming the priority is to protect the most vulnerable healthcare workers, this isn't enough vaccine to innoculate all of them or achieve any herd immunity effects this year, but it should help prevent critical personnel shortages in our healthcare facilities. The widespread availability of the vaccine should ramp up by mid-2021. Until then, all our efforts should be on prevention:
- GOOD QUALITY MASKS (PROPERLY WORN),
- SOCIAL DISTANCING,
- HAND WASHING,
- RESTRICTED TRAVEL,
- SMALL SOCIAL GATHERINGS,
- GOOD VENTILATION,
- SELF-QUARENTINING IF YOU FEEL ILL or TEST POSITIVE
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 247 - NOVEMBER 17, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
Comments: There was more positive news about vaccine development today. A general undercount of COVID deaths throughout the pandemic is well documented, but there is a growing number of states not reporting any deaths data on a daily basis. Given that these reports may not be generated from state administration officials directly, the cause of these omissions is a mystery.
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 246 - NOVEMBER 16, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
Comments: With 20% of the states not reporting any death statistics over the weekend, it is impossible to know what the death toll really is. There is no transparency in place to reassure us that all of these missing death statistics are being added back later in the week, and there are some statistical justifications to question whether every death is being counted.
In terms of new cases being reported, we know that these are clinical reports from health-related institutions. Most of these reports are cases confirmed to be COVID-19 from a PCR laboratory test. None of these numbers include suspected cases, and most people who are positive for the virus but have no symptoms, or very mild symptoms, aren't being tested at all. The scientific estimates are that for every person clinically confirmed to have COVID-19, between five and ten other cases go undetected. (The range is because of the different testing availability in different parts of the country, not because of the degree of uncertainty of the scientists). No matter how loudly our national administration shouts about our wonderful testing numbers, COVID testing is negligently inadequate to meet the scale of the outbreak in the United States.
To repeat myself:
"Dr. Michael Mina is a Harvard Epidemiologist says we can beat COVID-19 with the widespread and frequent use of cheap, at-home screening tests. Please hear him out and if you agree, speak out on social media and write to your representatives and the new administration to demand a better testing program that includes nationwide in-home screening tests.
MAP (above): Current status of known U.S. COVID-19 Virus cases in the U.S. published by CNN.
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 245 - NOVEMBER 15, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
Comments: The test positivity rate keeps climbing every day while the 7-day average number of new cases (virus spread) and deaths continues to rise despite significant weekend undercounts. Despite this undercounting, The U.S. total number of new cases is up as a global percentage of all new cases yesterday. nearly as many as the combined total new cases in the next five countries.
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 244 - NOVEMBER 14, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
Comments: Today is day 244 of our national health crisis. We are fast approaching 200,000 new infections per day. President Trump addressed the nation yesterday and said we have a lot of cases because we have the best testing and therefore we detect the most cases. Nothing could be further from the truth. Somewhere in the country this coming week someone will receive a COVID test that will numerically represent exactly one half of the total U.S. population. Testing in the United States couldn't be more anemic.
Dr. Michael Mina is a Harvard Epidemiologist says we can beat COVID-19 with the widespread and frequent use of cheap, at-home screening tests. Almost no one now knows for sure if they are carrying the virus. People assume they are safe to be around if they don't feel ill or have a fever, but we know that may not be the case. If everyone frequently screened themselves for the virus they would know as soon as they become infectious and could take immediate steps to prevent others from catching it. These home screening tests work much like pregnancy tests and the technology is available now. They would cost about a dollar per test and results can be read in 15 minutes. Widespread use of these at-home tests would increase our testing rates from about a million per day to tens-of-millions per day.
[PS: Click on the Rt Covid link above to see how your state is doing.]
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 243 - NOVEMBER 13, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
All states are reporting the number of new cases but 5 states that probably have had deaths are not reporting any deaths. They are Kansas, Alaska, Montana, Wyoming, and South Dakota.
Comments: There was another record number of new infections yesterday, double what the 7-day average was just 18 days ago. This is an exponential explosion of new cases with no end in sight. To put into in a global perspective, our new case total yesterday exceeded the combined total of daily new cases in the next five countries. New deaths, 1,190 of them, is a deliberate undercount at this point. Proportionally speaking, the real total should be nearly double that number. The test positivity rate continues to rise. Hospitalization rates are climbing as well. We are just shy of having given enough total COVID-19 tests to cover 1/2 of the U.S. population. At this point, testing and contact tracing would not be able to bend the curve. Only prevention efforts, such as social distancing, mask-wearing, self-isolation, and such would have an effect on curbing the spread of the virus.
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 242 - NOVEMBER 12, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
Louisiana statistics are missing. Wyoming and D.C. have no deaths reported, which is unlikely.
New Tool to Assess Risk for Event Planners
Just in time for the holidays, a free interactive map of the contagion risk in every county in the U.S. has been created by Georgia Tech. It was developed by a quantitative biologist who wanted a way to quantify the risk of attending events of various sizes in different locations. The LA Times introduced it this way:
How likely is it you’ll encounter at least one person who is infected with the coronavirus if you go to a bar in Denver? What about a 100-person wedding in Baltimore? Or a Thanksgiving dinner with 25 guests in Los Angeles? - (And if you’re curious, as of Monday, you’d have a 78% chance of encountering someone with an active coronavirus infection at the Denver bar, a 68% chance at the wedding in Baltimore, and a roughly 25% chance at the L.A. Thanksgiving meal.)
So, if you are planning any travel or planning an event, this is a good way to assess how safe that activity might be. The direct link to the map is here.
DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 241 - NOVEMBER 11, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
Both new daily cases and death reports are missing from Missouri and Nebraska yesterday, and there are no death reports from New Hampshire or Kansas.
Comments: The community spread of the virus is out of control and the current surge is by far the largest. Thirty-six states are reporting over a thousand new cases per day. Illinois and Texas alone had over 12,000 new cases yesterday, and the U.S. accounted for 1 in 4 new infections in the world. Our new infections yesterday exceeds the daily new infections reported in the next four countries combined. We have the most people dying of COVID-19 in the world, yet the number of deaths being reported here is significantly undercounted. According to media reports, hospitals in several regions of the country are at or above capacity. New cases two days ago were doubled what they were 22 days prior. Today's new cases doubled in 21 days, indicating that the rate of growth is still increasing. New Jersey is twelfth among the states in the number of new cases reported yesterday, yet I see people flocking to restaurants, and gyms as if the crisis had passed. These are the place where people are most likely to become infected, according to a new study released yesterday. The daily new cases bar graph with the 7-day moving average (below) is a visual depiction of just how serious the situation is as we move into the holiday season. A vaccine is perhaps six months away if we can just hold and do what it takes to control the spread of the virus. Give the gift of life this year... wear a mask.
THE DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 240 - NOVEMBER 10, 2020
UNDERCOUNT
Nebraska's new cases and death reports are missing. Death reports are also missing from Arizona, Alaska, Alabama, Mississippi, Wyoming, and New Hampshire. The lack of death reports by the states is masking the true mortality data. The United States' global share of COVID-19 deaths parallels our global share of total COVID-19 cases, yet our current share of COVID-19 deaths is far below our current global share of new cases each day. Based on proportionality, our global share of daily deaths should be more than 20% of the world total yesterday. It was only 9.5%, which is a documented undercount. The actual number of deaths yesterday could be more like 1,500 deaths, well above the 641 death reported. Even when the backlogged numbers are added later in the week the proportions are still off.
Comments: Day 240 of our national health emergency and the total number of COVID tests performed to date would still not be enough to test half the U.S. population. Test positivity rates are climbing rapidly each day as are hospitalizations. The 7-day average number of new cases per day is double what it was on October 18th, just 22 days ago.
Against this backdrop, the word that a Pfizer vaccine might be 90% effective is very good news. These results appear to be preliminary results from a phase 2 trial that is still underway. Large scale testing is still needed. Also of note is that the mechanism to boost immunity appears to be a novel approach. Here is an excerpt from Nature magazine:
The vaccine... consists of molecular instructions — in the form of messenger RNA (mRNA) — for human cells to make the coronavirus’ spike protein, the immune systems’ key target for coronaviruses. The two-dose vaccine showed promise in animal studies and early-stage clinical trials. But the only way to know if the vaccine works is to give it to large numbers of people, and then follow them over weeks or months to see if they become infected and show disease symptoms.
THE DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 239 - NOVEMBER 9, 2020
UNDERCOUNT: Today's data is missing the number of new cases and deaths from Michigan, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Oklahoma, and Connecticut. Also missing are new death reports from New Hampshire, Alaska, Maine, West Virginia, and D.C. International data is also missing from Spain (over 20,000 new cases per day), Sweden, and Switzerland.
Comments: Despite missing reports from a number of states, community spread of the virus is rising disproportionally higher in the United States than in the world community in general for the third day in a row. This trend will likely continue as missing data is added back later in the week. In the past seven days, the average daily number of new cases exceeded 111,000/day while COVID test positivity rates have risen to exceed 8%. Below a 5% positivity rate is the WHO's inflection point for easing restrictive mandates. The number of people dying of COVID-19 is woefully under-reported, even when all states are being reported. Nevertheless, the death toll stands at about 244,000 Americans with the worst of the pandemic still to come. Mask usage is declining in many states even as new cases are surging. Alarm bells should be sounding, but our national attention has understandably been on the recent elections. We should all be redoubling our efforts to stay safe and bend down the curve right now. Please take this warning to heart!
THE DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 238 - NOVEMBER 8, 2020
USA vs. WORLD - Our community spread is about six times higher than it should be based on our population size. If we were doing as well at controlling infection rates as the rest of the world our new cases per day would be around 21,000 cases. That should be our national target. Despite today's undercount, for the past two days our percentage of new cases globally has exceeded our percentage of total cases globally. That means community spread in the United States is growing out of proportion to the rest of the world once again.
TEST POSITIVITY - Test positivity continues to rise daily on the Johns Hopkins website, but it is hard to know if this represents an actual change or an artifact of improvements they have been making to their methods for calculating positivity rates. I am still hoping to hear more from them on my inquiry.
THE DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 237 - NOVEMBER 7, 2020
Comments: With all U.S. states reporting we are over 132,000 new cases in the past 24 hours... well on our way to the projected 200,000 new cases a day by Christmas. The 7-day average number for new cases per day stands at 101,798. That is double what it was on October 12th, just 26 days ago. It has jumped 35% since election day while we await word as to who won the Presidency. The number of death is still undercounted with a number of states not reporting any of those figures yesterday.
Included here today is a table prepared from data and projections provided by Worldometer.info showing current mask use and projected numbers of cases per day by January 1, 2020. The table shows the ten states that have the highest number of new cases reported as of today and how the current trends in mask wearing will impact community transmission of the virus 54 days from now. The table also presents the number of new cases per day if mask use reaches 95% compliance. The calculations assume masks will reduce community transmission by a very modest 30%, which is the low end of the effectiveness of woven cloth masks. This analysis shows that under these two conditions, a 95% mask compliance rate will result in at least 10,000 fewer infections per day by January 1, 2021. That improvement in the community spread would improve significantly with the strategic use of better quality masks in higher-risk circumstances.
THE DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 236 - NOVEMBER 6, 2020
Checking on the rate of change, the 7-day average on the 4th of the month had doubled in 30 days while today's average is double what it was 28 days ago. It's too short a time period to make any claim, but this is a measure that we should see lengthen, not shorten, on a weekly basis as infection rates begin to slow. The test positivity rate is still rising from 6.4% at the start of the month to 7.3% today.
THE DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 235 - NOVEMBER 5, 2020
Comments: The U.S. had the highest number of daily new infections in the history of this pandemic yesterday, higher than the next three worst countries combined. The tsunami is upon us and still building. Texas had over 10,000 new cases yesterday. Illinois had over 7,500 new cases. Only now, as we face the prospect of 200,000 new infections per day in December, does Dr. Robert Redfield of the CDC raise the need for a national testing strategy... in a tweet:
US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Dr. Robert Redfield tweeted on Wednesday, “Now is the time to develop a testing strategy to maximize our ability to identify the silent epidemic of asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.”
Here is what this 7-day moving average of new cases looks like in this third surge so far:
New Jersey was one of the hardest-hit states back in March. It is the state with the most deaths per million. It now has a 7-day average for new cases at levels not seen since mid-May, yet gyms, bars, and restaurants remain open and people are congregating unsafely as if the crisis has passed. Starting tomorrow, New Jersey will be the first state to mandate safety protocols to protect workers from the coronavirus, including mandating temperature checks when they come to work, and more frequent breaks to wash their hands during the day. What is wrong with business owners that such common-sense measures would have to be mandated in the first place? There wouldn't be these "onerous, new regulations" (as our Republican leaders call them) if everyone did the sensible thing. How long can a business operate if they don't protect their workforce from the pandemic? We are seeing irrational, politically motivated resistance to common sense precaution in every state. We need to ask ourselves why politics has become such a massive influence on our daily lives.
THE DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 234 - NOVEMBER 4, 2020
Comments: With a national election still underway amidst a coup attempt to stop the vote count... the COVID-19 virus continues to spread unrestrained but not unnoticed. The U.S. had far more reported new cases yesterday than did India and France combined. The 7-day average continues its climb, having doubled in just 30 days. This is in line with the projections, which also suggest the numbers will double again by year-end if we don't adopt universal mask use. By tomorrow there will be a 7-day average of over 20,000 more people catching the virus per day than during the July peak. With all states but Alaska reporting on deaths, the total is nearly 1,200 dead. This is still an undercount. A statistically realistic total would be more like 1,550.
The advice of some TV pundits to voters is to "breathe" while this election gets sorted out. The best advice I can give readers here is to wear a damn mask when you breathe around others.
THE DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 233 - NOVEMBER 3, 2020
Comments: With all states reporting, but with the backlog not fully counted, the daily new cases in the past 24 hours rose to almost 89,000 people. The number of new deaths, however, remain significantly undercounted with Utah, Alabama, Wyoming (for a second day), and Mississippi not reporting any deaths. This undercounting of deaths shows up in the global comparison percentages also. Notice that our percentage of all COVID-19 cases stands at about 20% and our current share of new cases is about 19%. Next note that our global share of total COVID deaths is also nearly 20%, but our current global share of new deaths is only 9%. While the 7-day average of new cases is rapidly rising, the 7-day average of new deaths is relatively stable. None of this seems proportional. A proportional count would place the number of people succumbing to the virus yesterday closer to double what was reported. No one wants bad news, but we owe it to those who die during this pandemic to at least have their deaths counted.
THE DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY FOR NOVEMBER
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 232 - NOVEMBER 2, 2020
Comments: With a weekly average of almost 83,000 new infections per day, the U.S. remains #1 in the spread of the virus. Today's numbers are undercounted as four states (MI, KS, CT, and NE) have not reported any data over the weekend. Additionally, the death count is significantly undercounted as another six states (DC, NH, WV, WY, WA, and TN) have not submitted that data.
[Editorial Comment] For me personally, the current national administration passed the point of redemption when infants and children were permanently taken from their mothers at the U.S.-Mexican border. Now we are in a global pandemic without a national plan to keep us safe. We need an administration that will prioritize keeping us safe from the spread of the COVID-19 virus. It's a matter of life and death. Whether you see it that way or not, please vote. Everyone should have a fair chance to vote their conscience.
THE DAILY PANDEMIC DIARY for November
NATIONAL HEALTH EMERGENCY
DAY 231 - NOVEMBER 1, 2020
Diary entry: Welcome to November. The numbers reported are weekend undercounts with no numbers reported by LA, and CT, and no death reports from RI, DC, NV, KS, and WY. Even so, the new U.S. infections that were reported are greater than the totals for India (#2) and France (#3) combined. The 7-day average for newly reported cases in a 24 hour period had doubled in 43 days. Three states are pausing reopening measures and seven states are reversing reopening measures in place.
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